[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081246
SWODY1
SPC AC 081244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
ESC 10 NNW HTL MBS 25 SSW JXN 20 WNW STL 45 S PNC 20 SSE CSM 60 NNW
CDS 45 W RSL HLC 15 WNW MCK 30 NNE IML 30 SSW MHN 35 SW ANW 45 NE
BUB 10 NNW OMA 30 SW ALO 35 SSE LSE 10 SW CWA 15 ENE AUW 50 SSW IMT
50 S ESC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
INL 15 WSW DLH 40 NNE MSP 35 SSW STC 50 SSW AXN 35 S FAR GFK 75 N
GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE GON
25 N TTN 20 E CXY 30 SW DCA 20 W HSE ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 35 SW BHB
...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU 35 S AUS 35 SSE HDO 35 S LRD
...CONT... 70 SSW MRF 30 NNE INK 40 ESE DHT 45 SSW LAA 30 NE ALS 10
S EGE 20 S RWL 25 S RKS 50 NNW PUC 60 NW ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65
SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BIS 40 N REJ
65 WSW RAP 25 SW CDR 35 N MHN 35 SE MHE 25 NNW ATY 50 SE JMS 20 WNW
JMS 20 WNW BIS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM WI TO ERN KS...AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NEB....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN MN....

...WI TO NE KS AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF AN INTENSE OVERNIGHT MCS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ARE
MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS WRN WI AND NRN IA.  THIS CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IA/WI WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE
PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR...THUS
STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME.  CONVECTION
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWD/SEWD ALONG THE AXIS OF 70 F DEWPOINTS AND
STRONG INSTABILITY TOWARD NE KS/NW MO BY AFTERNOON.  THIS AREA WILL
BE ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS LINKED TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE SE
MOVING FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD
OCCUR...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.

...CENTRAL/NRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WELL TO THE NW OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND...A PRONOUNCED MCV IS
LIFTING NNEWD OVER NE ND/NW MN.  THE OVERNIGHT MCS PRODUCED A LARGE
COLD POOL AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...REDUCING
INSTABILITY ACROSS MN MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MN IN ADVANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW AND MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTING
NEWD FROM ND.  RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG.  MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS BENEATH THE NOSE OF THE MID-UPPER JET ACROSS WRN
AND NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
 
...NEB AREA LATE TONIGHT...
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS NRN KS LATE
TODAY...AND THEN RETURN NWWD ACROSS NEB LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
LEE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF WRN KS. WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING WAA REGIME N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AFTER 06Z. 

...NY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN LOWER MI/LAKE HURON WILL
MOVE ESEWD TO NY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG A
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WRN AND UPSTATE NY.  ALONG AND S OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE LOW-MID 60S AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.  THE WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG
WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 30 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS
AND HAIL.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 06/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.