[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080549
SWODY1
SPC AC 080547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
ANJ 35 WSW GRR 60 ESE VIH 45 S PNC 20 SSE CSM 60 NNW CDS GCK 35 NE
GLD 35 ESE SNY 25 E AIA 40 W YKN 20 SSE BKX 40 SSE FAR 65 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU
35 S AUS 35 SSE HDO 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 30 W LBB 40 N AMA
40 WNW EHA 25 SSE PUB 30 NNE EGE 20 S RWL 40 NNE RKS 30 SSW EVW 30
WSW ENV 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 35 SW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE GON
25 N TTN 20 E CXY 30 SW DCA 20 W HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

...UPPER MS VLY/UPPER-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COUPLE OF MCS/S MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY SWD INTO THE CORN BELT WITH ATTENDANT
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  MORNING STORMS WILL ALTER THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS FOR WED AFTN SEVERE POTENTIAL...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE PORTION OF TSTM CLUSTERS WILL TRAVEL
NEWD AND DECAY OVER CNTRL MN/NRN WI WED MORNING... REINFORCING AN
E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE.  RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG/S OF THE
FRONT BY AFTN. BY PEAK HEATING...THE WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NOW
EJECTING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BRUSH THE UPPER MS VLY. 
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY OWING TO
THE DAMPENING WAVE.  BUT PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL TSTMS BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF MN
SOUTH INTO IA.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
0-6KM VALUES OF AROUND 35 KTS. STRONG INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEAKER SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
MIXED MODES OF MULTICELLS AND BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD UPPER MI...BUT LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT/INSTABILITY
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER KS BY
WED AFTN AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MINIMAL. 
BUT...AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO NEAR 70F SURFACE
DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ATTM IT APPEARS THAT FIRST INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN MO/NERN
KS...POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TSTMS...THEN
DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW TO THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SCNTRL KS.
 ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM AS FAR S AS I-40 ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT
CONVERGENCE APPEARS IT WILL BE WEAKER THAT FAR SOUTH.  LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...BUT
SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AS WELL GIVEN MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FARTHER W...HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CO.  LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL LIMIT THERMAL
BUOYANCY...BUT THE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  STORMS
SHOULD STAY ISOLD AT BEST ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES SHOULD SUFFICE.

MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST IN NEB
OVERNIGHT WED AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO ACCELERATE. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THAT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NWWD.  IF THE CAP
CAN BE OVERCOME...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL GIVEN
THE STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.

...NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...
A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EWD INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.  WSWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER STORMS TO POSSIBLY BOW AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.  WILL
INCLUDE LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND THREATS UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ON
SEVERE COVERAGE/INSTABILITY CAN BE ASCERTAINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 06/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.