[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080053
SWODY1
SPC AC 080051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
VTN 20 SSW PHP 55 NNW PHP 25 WNW MBG 50 ESE BIS 35 WSW FAR 45 ESE
FAR 35 SSW AXN 20 NE BKX 25 NW MHE 45 N VTN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
ELO 50 ENE ESC 40 NW MKG 35 ENE MKE 30 W MKE 35 N DBQ 30 E FOD 25
ESE SUX 15 SW OFK 30 NW BBW 45 WNW MHN 10 SSW CDR 10 N RAP 15 WNW
4BQ MLS 25 WSW SDY 60 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE 55 SW CMH 30
SSW BLF 25 NNE DAN 10 N ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 W LFK
30 E DAL 25 ESE FYV 40 NE SGF 20 WNW COU 35 NNW SZL 15 ESE TOP 35 S
MHK 20 ESE RSL 15 SSE HLC 25 WSW MCK 10 S SNY 40 NNE LAR 35 WNW CPR
50 NW LND 20 NNE OGD 25 NW EKO 65 NE SVE 30 ENE MHS 20 SW MFR 10 W
EUG 10 S PDX 20 NNW GEG 60 NW 3TH 10 WNW 3DU 30 NW BZN 15 NE LWT 65
ENE HVR.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN SD...EXTREME
SERN ND AND WCNTRL MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...NRN PLAINS...
VERY STRONG COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED OVER WRN SD AND WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT SLOWS OVER SERN ND
AND CNTRL SD.  THE LLJ IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL FORM DOWNSTREAM ALONG/NORTH OF
THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO WCNTRL/NWRN MN AFTER
03Z.

THE NEAR SURFACE THROUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH
TIME OVER THE PLAINS...AND BECOME ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD POOL...SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE DECELERATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
 THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...AND DISCRETE MODES WILL BE FAVORED MOSTLY THIS EVENING
WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO SERN ND WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
MAINTAINED.

LATER TONIGHT...THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES ORIENTED WSWLY AND
INCREASES.  THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LOOPY SQUALL-LINE SCENARIO WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.  BUT...ISOLD TORNADOES
STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALL THE WAY EAST INTO PARTS OF WRN MN
LATER TONIGHT.

NRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL PROBABLY BE DEFINED BY THE COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED INTO EXTREME NRN MN AND
PARTS OF NRN ND.

...UPPER MS VLY...
MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1003 MB SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NWRN WI WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED SEWD ACROSS CNTRL WI AND A WARM
FRONT FARTHER N IN NRN WI.  LINE OF TSTMS VCNTY THE LOW SWWD TO
SCNTRL MN HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL AND SEEM TO BE SUSTAINING TSTMS
AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD WRN WI.  PROFILER AT WOOD LAKE AND BLUE
RIVER SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...WITH A MIXED MODE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL
STRUCTURES BEING NOTED THIS EVENING.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING MOSTLY LARGE HAIL.  BUT...A FEW STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN WI ALONG THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT
HAVE EXHIBITED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLD TORNADOES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED.

OVERNIGHT...A BRANCH OF THE H9-H85 JET PEELING NEWD FROM THE MAIN
CORE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN TSTMS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING
MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WI.  CELLS TRAVELING/DEVELOPING
NEWD INTO UPPER MI WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME GIVEN
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ENTRENCHED IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. 
BUT...FARTHER S...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.  ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS
EVENING PRIMARILY FROM NWRN-CNTRL-ECNTRL WI.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
DESPITE WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY...00Z SOUNDINGS AT LBF/DDC/MAF AND THE 18Z REESE AFB SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT THE CAP WAS NOT AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN TSTM INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  RATHER THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
AND...CONSEQUENTLY...DRYLINE CIRCULATION WERE WEAKER.  A FEW TSTMS
WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER SW TX TERRAIN WHERE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS.  BUT...EVEN THESE TSTMS APPEAR
TO NOT BE INGESTING THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS.  AS A
RESULT...THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEM TO BE LESSENING WITH
TIME THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE.

..RACY.. 06/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.