[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 072010
SWODY1
SPC AC 072008

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CDR 35 S RAP 45 NNE RAP 35 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 SSW FAR 40 W AXN 30
WSW RWF 40 SE FSD 45 ENE ANW 20 ENE CDR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 30 NNE MMO 20 E CID 35 E FOD 25 SE
SUX 25 SW OLU P28 25 ESE CDS 45 NW DRT 35 SW P07 45 W P07 10 WSW PVW
50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 40 ESE RIW 25 SW WRL 40 N SHR 30 W MLS
20 SSW OLF 65 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 15 E HOB 40
S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 40 NNE EGE 35 E PUC 20 NNE
U24 30 ENE WMC 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E
63S 45 N 3TH 15 SSE 3DU 35 ENE BTM 35 W 3HT 10 NE LWT 55 SE HVR 60
ENE HVR ...CONT... 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15
N PHL 30 WSW EEN 20 W EFK.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS...

THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SD TO A SECONDARY LOW
OVER CNTRL MN. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN WI. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW IN THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH NERN CO...WRN
KS AND W TX.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXIST IN VICINITY OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY INTO WRN SD WITHIN A ZONE
OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SWRN WY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO
ERN MT. FARTHER EAST INTO SD WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED. HOWEVER...CUMULUS IS INCREASING FROM
SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL SD IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA BY 21-22Z AS CAP WEAKENS. 

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER SWRN SD WHERE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING MID-UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AND HELP TO WEAKEN CAP. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
SD DURING THE EVENING AS LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET. A WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER SD AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS
IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH SD.


...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH WRN WI FROM A SURFACE LOW
IN E CNTRL MN. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STATIONARY FRONT. BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE IF STORMS CAN MOVE SEWD ALONG OR JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO SELY AND WHERE IT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.


...SRN PLAINS...

THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF CAP AND
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INITIATION. HOWEVER...MODEST DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE MAY MIX EWD AND MERGE WITH A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR INITIATION IN THAT AREA. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

..DIAL.. 06/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.