[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071631
SWODY1
SPC AC 071629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
VTN 55 NE CDR 40 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 20 SW FAR 20 W BRD 40
S STC 25 NW FRM 20 ESE YKN 25 S VTN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 40 ESE DBQ 30 E ALO 30 NE FOD 10 SSE
SUX 25 SW OLU 10 SE P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 W CDS 20 ESE AMA 35
S LBL 50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE SHR
30 W MLS 20 S OLF 55 N ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 40 NNE HOB
40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 20 WSW VEL 20
NNW DPG 30 ENE WMC 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG
65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 15 SSE 3DU 35 ENE BTM 35 W 3HT 10 NE LWT 55 SE HVR
60 ENE HVR ...CONT... 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA
15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS CENTRAL AND ERN
SD...EXTREME SERN ND... PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MN AND EXTREME NRN
NEB....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS MORNING
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD AND DEEPEN INTO A LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THIS ENHANCES THE WRN U.S.
TROUGH THAT RETROGRADES OVER THE NRN PLATEAU REGION.  AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NRN WY/ERN MT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER NWRN NEB/CENTRAL SD VICINITY FURTHER
ENHANCING WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN SD INTO
SRN/CENTRAL MN AND SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE FROM CENTRAL SD
SSWWD INTO NERN NM.

...NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MN...

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENS
OVER WY/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50
KT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NNEWD INTO ERN SD UNDERNEATH
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION.  MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 70 KT IN
TANDEM WITH UPPER LEVEL JET OF 90-100 KT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN NV/SRN
ID THRU SERN WY INTO CENTRAL SD.  THIS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SD THEN INTO WRN/CENTRAL MN
TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUSION ENHANCING UVVS IN THE VICINITY AND EAST OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL SD
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE
FAVORABLE AND BRN SHEAR NUMBERS INCREASE INTO THE 60-70 M2/S2
UNDERNEATH THE COUPLING JET STREAKS.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTO CENTRAL SD AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS WY/MT. STRONG KINEMATICS AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO AROUND 4000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS.  TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  THEN...WITH DECREASE IN
SURFACE HEATING TONIGHT...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS
CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY BECOMES A MCS ACROSS MN AND PARTS OF WI TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK...

STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH DRYLINE
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.  STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND
8.5C/KM PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.