[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071247
SWODY1
SPC AC 071245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
VTN 55 NE CDR 40 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 WSW FAR 40 SSE FAR
55 SSW AXN 30 SE BKX 40 E ANW 25 S VTN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
ELO 35 E ESC 35 W MKG 35 NW CGX 40 ESE DBQ 30 E ALO 30 NE FOD 10 SSE
SUX 25 SW OLU 10 SE P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 W CDS 20 ESE AMA 35
S LBL 50 NNE GCK 25 NE MCK 35 E AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE SHR
15 W MLS 45 WSW P24 30 NNW DVL 80 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW
CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK ...CONT... 20 S
PSX 50 W HOU 35 ESE AUS 25 NE SAT 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 75 S MRF 40
NNE HOB 40 S EHA 35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 30 NE
PUC 60 S EKO 40 E MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E
63S 45 N 3TH 25 E DLN 15 NE WEY 35 NNW COD BIL 75 ENE LWT 60 ENE
HVR.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CNTRL/ERN SD...EXTREME NRN NEB...EXTREME WCNTRL MN...AND EXTREME SE
ND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN
PLAINS...THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A NARROW SWATH OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS....

...NRN PLAINS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WA/ORE...WITH ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING NEWD OVER MT/ND/SD...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING EWD
OVER WRN UT.  THE UT WAVE WILL EJECT NEWD TO ERN WY/NE CO BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT.  SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEB IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EJECTING WAVE.  THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL SD EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE OCCLUDING IN ND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE PATH OF
THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEAK ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER ERN NEB...WITH A LARGER
CLUSTER MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN.  THE MN CLUSTER MAY
PERSIST INTO WI TODAY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS...AND THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF THIS CONVECTION ARE A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THIS FORECAST. THE
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NE NEB TO NW IA
AND SW MN...WITH GENERALLY 58-60 F DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE.  EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN NEB TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LLJ
WEAKENS BY MID MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE HEATING TO
MODIFY THE COLD POOL.  AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES
DIFFUSE...NORTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF THE UPPER 60 DEWPOINT PLUME
SHOULD RESUME FROM ERN KS/NEB TO CENTRAL AND ERN SD BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.  THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/.

ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS AS EXPECTED ACROSS
NEB/SD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NW NEB AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN SD. 
CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
MCS/S. SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND NE OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE SD...WHERE THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR COINCIDES WITH
BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY.  

...CENTRAL PLAINS DRYLINE...
ABQ/DNR SOUNDINGS WARMED 2-4 C THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER FROM SUNDAY
EVENING TO YESTERDAY EVENING...AND THIS WARMER EML PLUME MAY ACT AS
A STRONGER CAP OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO MONDAY. 
STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FROM N TX TO
ERN KS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR.  MIXING/ASCENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 06/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.