[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070534
SWODY1
SPC AC 070533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
VTN 45 SW PHP 35 NNE RAP 30 SE Y22 50 ESE BIS 45 WSW FAR 40 SSE FAR
55 SSW AXN 30 SE BKX 40 S MHE 15 NNE VTN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 NE
CMX 35 WNW TVC 30 SW MKG 15 WNW CGX 35 SE DBQ 30 NNE CID 45 ESE FOD
20 N OMA 15 N CNK 25 N P28 15 NNW CSM 30 ENE CDS 30 E PVW 40 NNW PVW
40 SE EHA 25 NW GCK 10 SSE IML 30 ESE AIA 45 W CDR 35 SSW GCC 40 NNE
SHR 15 W MLS 45 WSW P24 30 NNW DVL 80 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSX 50 W HOU 35
ESE AUS 25 NE SAT 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 75 S MRF 40 NNE HOB 40 S EHA
35 WNW GCK 10 WNW GLD 10 WSW AKO 20 SW FCL 30 NE PUC 60 S EKO 40 E
MHS 25 SSW MFR 35 SSW EUG 25 N SLE 30 W GEG 65 E 63S 45 N 3TH 25 E
DLN 15 NE WEY 35 NNW COD BIL 75 ENE LWT 60 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLE CMH 30 NNW
CRW 30 SSW EKN 10 NNW DCA 15 N PHL BAF 20 ENE EFK.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SD...EXTREME SERN
ND AND EXTREME WCNTRL MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS EWD
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VLY REGIONS...

...NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
AN MCS OR TWO ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MN. 
THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.  BUT...AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS ALONG
ALONG/S OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
WI...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE DECAYING CLUSTER. 
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS IN THE NRN PLAINS AND NORTH OF THE
LAKES REGION SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE OF
MULTICELL VARIETY.  BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  A MODEST H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROTATING EWD
THROUGH NV IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A LOW OVER WRN SD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CNTRL
SD BY TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD INTO
WCNTRL MN.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55F AS FAR W AS THE WY BLACK HILLS.

AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/SWRN SD WILL INTENSIFY AND PROBABLY ROOT
INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF SD BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BACKS WITH TIME
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FLOW TURNS MORE WLY RESULTING IN
STRONGER VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.  THIS SET-UP APPEARS SIMILAR
TO MONDAY NIGHTS TSTM EVOLUTION WHERE WRN EXTENT OF THE TSTMS
EVOLVED INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST REMAINED DISCRETE
THE LONGEST.  0-6KM SHEAR AOA 45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY RESULT GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.  MOREOVER...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL
SD.  ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE INITIALLY HIGH LCLS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VLY.  SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.  

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO WARM DURING THE NEXT
24-HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS W TX.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM
INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/WRN NEB INTO WRN KS AND PERHAPS THE
TX/OK PNHDLS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THAT GIVEN A STORM...SUPERCELL STRUCTURE COULD RESULT. 
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DECREASING SEVERE
THREATS.

..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.