[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070053
SWODY1
SPC AC 070052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
ISN 55 NE BIS 55 NNE ABR 25 SE ABR 25 SW MBG 30 NNE REJ 40 SSW GDV
10 SW SDY 35 SE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
SBY 15 NW NHK 10 ENE DCA 15 SW ILG TTN 20 ENE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W
MRF 40 E 4CR 20 WSW CAO 30 NE LAA 45 ENE AKO 40 NNW BFF 15 NNW GCC
60 WSW MLS 70 ESE HVR 55 NE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 45 S 4CR
15 NW LVS 15 WSW PUB 30 SW DEN GJT ELY RNO RBL 15 WNW EKA ...CONT...
40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG 50 SSW S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW
HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 35 S LFK 30
ENE CLL 30 ESE DAL 15 NW MKO 35 SE SZL 30 SSE MIE 20 E PIT 35 SSW
ELM 25 ENE MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E RRT 10 NW DLH 50
S LSE 40 NNE FNB 20 WNW PNC 55 NNE ABI 60 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MOT 40 W BRD
MSP 30 NW MCW SUX 35 E GRI 35 E DDC 25 W CDS 60 E FST 20 SE P07.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN MT...SRN ND
AND NRN SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN...
MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 995 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN ND THEN INTO WCNTRL MN. MOIST
ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG/N OF THE LOW/FRONT BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE WY/MT HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY IN THE AFTN.  

TSTMS HAVE OBVIOUSLY ROOTED INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS ERN MT/NERN WY AND ARE BEING MAINTAINED.  SEVERAL STORMS HAVE
MADE DEVIANT RIGHT MOTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE MEAN FLOW VCNTY THE
WARM FRONT AND TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SERN/ECNTRL MT.

STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WRN DAKS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THREATS FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MID-EVENING.  THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM ECNTRL MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND. 

AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO DIURNALLY ACCELERATE LATER THIS EVENING...
TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND DEVELOP/MOVE
DOWNSTREAM...ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.  AT THAT
TIME...SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.  

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
DRYLINE WAS AN EFFICIENT TSTM INITIATOR THIS AFTN OWING TO HOT
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND DIFFLUENT/VENTING UPPER FLOW REGIME
FROM WRN NEB TO SWRN TX.  VERTICAL SHEAR THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE
AOA 40 KTS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.

PRIND THAT AS THE LLJ INCREASES ON THE PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING...ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S MAY EVOLVE.  STRONGEST POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN
NEB...CNTRL/ERN SD AND PERHAPS ACROSS SRN KS/WRN OK/TX PNHDL.  GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE
THREATS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE SEVERE THREATS MAY
LINGER LONGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD.

...MID-ATLANTIC/MID OH VLY...
LEWP CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE NJ/MD/DE COAST THIS EVENING. 
NRN PORTIONS OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX WILL RIDE ATOP THE COLD BUBBLE
SITUATED OVER LONG ISLAND/NRN NJ AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.  STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SRN NJ...DE...THE
LOWER ERN MD SHORE AREA AND ERN VA THROUGH MID-EVENING.  PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER NW...SUFFICIENT AIR MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF EARLIER DAY BOW
ECHO HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ADDITIONAL TSTM LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN PA BACK INTO THE MID-OH VLY.  THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE FORMING ON AN ARRAY OF SEGMENTED COLD FRONTS.  BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO SUSTAINING THESE TSTMS MUCH
PAST MIDNIGHT. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

..RACY.. 06/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.