[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 062013
SWODY1
SPC AC 062012

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
OLF 40 NE OLF 25 ENE ISN 45 SE JMS 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW ABR 65 N PHP 10
NNE REJ 40 N 4BQ 30 SW OLF.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
MGW DUJ 20 N PSB 10 SE IPT 10 SW AVP 45 N MSV 20 NNE UCA 25 E SLK 20
NNW RUT 30 E POU TTN 10 W PHL 35 WSW MRB 10 NE EKN 35 WSW MGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
MOT STC 30 ENE MKT 30 E FRM OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25
SW P07 ...CONT... 50 WNW MRF 30 ESE 4CR TAD 40 NW AKO 25 E CYS 15 NW
CYS 45 S LND BPI 40 NNE JAC 10 NNW 3HT 50 N LWT 30 N HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
DOV 30 SW CHO 10 WSW GSP 25 ESE CHA 20 SSE HSV 15 ESE MSL 50 ENE MKL
25 WSW DYR 25 SSE FSM 10 NW FSM 25 N UMN 20 E VIH 30 SSW MTO 50 WNW
LUK 35 NW HLG 25 SE ERI ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG
50 SSW S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE
FCA ...CONT... 45 WNW INL 15 N HIB 15 SW DLH 15 SW EAU 45 NW DBQ 45
SSW ALO DSM 40 NNE FNB STJ 30 NE SZL 40 SSE UIN 25 N IND 30 N DAY 10
SSE CAK 15 SW ERI ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 10 ESE NIR 30 NNW ALI 40 ENE
LRD 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 45 S 4CR 15 NW LVS 15 WSW PUB
30 SW DEN GJT ELY RNO RBL 15 WNW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 30 SW MWN 10
WNW CON BOS.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NY SWWD ACROSS NRN
NJ...SRN PA AND INTO EXTREME NRN WV AND NRN MD...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MT INTO PORTIONS OF
ND/SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/OH AND TN
VALLEYS NEWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS SWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...NERN STATES...
DERECHO MOVING THROUGH ERN NY/NERN PA/NRN NJ WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL. THE MOIST BOUNDARY SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF EWD MOVING DERECHO...ESPECIALLY BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS THE WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE DERECHO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SELY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC ARE
RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHER SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL PA SWWD INTO NRN WV. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS TO FORM A COLD
POOL...WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF PA AND PORTIONS OF NRN MD/WV. FURTHER SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL WV EWD ACROSS NRN VA INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER THAN ACROSS PA...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AT MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NERN WY AND IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SD...WITH 20 KT SELY WINDS
NORTH OF THE FRONT ADVECTING MID AND UPPER 50S INTO ERN MT. AT THE
SAME...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS WY AND ERN MT WAS STRENGTHENING AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OUT OF NRN UT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES...EVEN AS THE
STORMS MOVES EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD THIS EVENING. AROUND MID
EVENING...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AID STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR
MCS. A STRONG COLD POOL SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM LINE
LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF ND/NRN SD AND EVENTUALLY SWRN MN
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT ONCE THE MCS FORMS.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...25-35 KT...A
VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE AND STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUPERCELLS APPEARS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR. THE MAIN THEAT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE HAIL...THOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

...MID MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
AT MID AFTERNOON...MCV'S WERE LOCATED IN ERN MO...NRN MS AND NEAR
FSM. THE SYSTEM IN NRN MS HAS PERSISTED THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TN
EWD INTO WRN NC AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT...STRONG HEATING AND MODERATELY
INSTABILITY AND WEAK COLD POOLS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC WIND
DAMAGE.

..IMY.. 06/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.