[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061607
SWODY1
SPC AC 061606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
AOO 25 WSW PSB 20 N ITH 25 SE ART 20 WSW SLK 10 SSE PBG 15 NW MPV 10
ENE RUT 25 ENE PSF 20 SW BDL 10 WSW BDR 20 SSW EWR 10 W PHL 35 W ILG
HGR 40 SSW AOO 25 WSW AOO.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
OLF 40 NE OLF 25 N ISN 30 WNW P24 45 N MBG 25 SSE MBG 65 N PHP 10
NNE REJ 40 N 4BQ 30 SW OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
EFK 15 ESE EEN 15 N GON 10 E DOV 40 W NHK 25 S 5I3 40 W HTS 15 NE
YNG 35 ESE ROC 40 NNE ART.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
MRF 40 N ROW 45 NNE CAO 35 SSW GLD 15 S IML 40 WSW MHN 35 ENE CDR 40
SSW RAP 60 NNE DGW 20 SSE CPR 45 WSW CPR 25 SW SHR 30 SSE LWT 50 S
HVR 35 NNW HVR ...CONT... 50 N MOT 35 SSE AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 NNW SUX
30 WSW OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25 SW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 10 ESE NIR
30 NNW ALI 40 ENE LRD 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 30
SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX COS 30 SW GJT 55 WNW MLF 10 E RNO 45
SSW SVE 40 SE EKA 15 WNW EKA ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 40 E GEG 50 SSW
S06 55 SSW MSO 30 W BTM 20 NNE BTM 40 NNW HLN 50 S CTB 50 NNE FCA
...CONT... 45 WNW INL 15 N HIB 45 SSW DLH 40 ESE MSP RST 25 SSE MCW
40 WNW DSM 40 NNE FNB 15 NE STJ 35 SSW IRK 35 SSE SPI 25 ENE BMG 10
S DAY 40 NNW CMH 25 W CLE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW JERSEY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OH VALLEY TO WRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS INTO
WRN PORTION NRN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE COLD UPPER LOW PAC NW WITH SIG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX
ROTATING NEWD FROM NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO NRN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT.  DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES EWD FROM GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY 40-50KT MID LEVEL JET.

AT THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL WY ATTM WILL DEEPEN NEWD WITH
APPROACH OF THE S/WV TROUGH INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES.


IN THE NORTHEAST A LARGE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO HAS A
COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY. A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDS EWD
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE
STABLE MARINE AIR IS PRESENT.

...NERN STATES...
ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WRN PA/NY ARE FEEDING OFF AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS THEY MOVE EWD.  STRONG HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPES TO 3500 J/KG EWD TO WRN NEW ENGLAND.  ALONG WITH VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM FROM SFC-3KM THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT... ACCOMPANYING
THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY PROPAGATE RAPIDLY E/NEWD TO WRN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DURING AFTERNOON FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES ERN NY/NERN PA.  REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO WRN PA/WV DURING MID
AFTERNOON WHERE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY UNSTABLE. THESE STORMS
WOULD THEN ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE/BOWS AND MOVE BACK ACROSS SOME
OF AREA NOW BEING AFFECTED BY CURRENT SEVERE AS WELL AS FURTHER S
INTO MD/NRN VA.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NEWD OUT OF WY ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPWARD MOTION AND WINDS WITH APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
E/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND WHICH COUPLED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES PRODUCE MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY ERN MT.  VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO
WRN ND/NWRN SD DURING EVENING WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL/TORNADOES.  A SEVERE MCS WILL THEN LIKELY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AND
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS ND FEEDING OFF 50 KT  LOW LEVEL JET.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY SRN HIGH PLAINS...A VERY
UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WRN EDGE OF
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE FROM TX/NM BORDER NWD TO SD.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE WITHIN THIS ZONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL.  A LITTLE MORE SHEAR
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...TN/LOWER MS VALLEY...
REF MCD 1195 AND 1196
WHILE SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK THROUGHOUT THIS REGION...THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS.

..HALES/GUYER.. 06/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.