[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061242
SWODY1
SPC AC 061240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
EFK 30 W EEN 15 NW ISP 10 E DOV 40 W NHK 20 N SHD MGW 20 NNE DUJ 35
SE ROC 40 NNE ART.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
MRF 40 N ROW 45 NNE CAO 35 SSW GLD 15 S IML 40 WSW MHN 35 ENE CDR 40
SSW RAP 60 NNE DGW 20 SSE CPR 45 WSW CPR 25 SW SHR 30 SSE LWT 50 S
HVR 35 NNW HVR ...CONT... 50 N MOT 35 SSE AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 NNW SUX
30 WSW OFK 50 ENE HLC 45 WSW GAG 35 ESE LBB 25 SW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 10 NNE VCT
45 NNW VCT 25 E SAT 25 E HDO 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE
4CR 30 SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX COS 25 W GJT 20 WNW U28 55 NW
MLF 10 E RNO 45 SSW SVE 20 SSE MHS 25 NNE 4BK 40 SSW OTH ...CONT...
40 NE 4OM 25 NE EPH 40 W PUW 25 SE LWS 40 WNW 27U DLN 25 NNW BZN 20
S GTF 45 SSE CTB 55 WNW CTB ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 25 S TVF 20 SSW
BRD MSP 15 S MCW 40 NNE FNB 15 WNW STJ 45 SSE P35 35 NNW SLO 35 ESE
BMG 10 S DAY 40 NNW CMH 25 W CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NY/PA SWD TO THE NRN CHESAPEAKE AREA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS....

...NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA...
A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW OVER WA/ORE WILL DRIFT INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
 EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...THE MOST
PROMINENT OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM NV THIS MORNING TO WY/MT BY
THIS EVENING.  A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY INVOF SE MT IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SPEED MAX...WHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT NWD AND CONSOLIDATE AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN SD.  THOUGH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SE OF SD...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LEE CYCLONE...AND PERHAPS TO THE W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN
MT...AND THEN SPREAD EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING AND
THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.  MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...AND WIND PROFILES WITH SELY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH
ROUGHLY 30 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE WARM FRONT
IN SD...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY LARGE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE
INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOW ECHO OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...PA/NY AREA...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EWD TO WRN PA/NY THIS EVENING AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM ERN LOWER MI TO WRN OH THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL PA/NY BY THIS EVENING...WHILE A N-S
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN NY DRIFTS EWD.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS 
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO WRN PA/NY FROM THE OH
VALLEY...AND NWD INTO ERN PA/NY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INVOF OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BY MIDDAY
AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN
WRN PA MAY PERSIST AS WELL.  PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
WITH 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT.  SOMEWHAT BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEAR THE ERN NY BORDER...AS WELL AS CHANNELED SLY FLOW IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A SUPERCELL THREAT...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

...HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...
THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TODAY ACROSS W TX IN THE WAKE
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHILE NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS KS/NEB. 
MEANWHILE...THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN SOME BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
RATHER DIFFUSE/WEAK...DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE
THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.  A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST AFTER
DARK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 06/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.