[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060547
SWODY1
SPC AC 060545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW
MRF 45 WNW CVS 30 W EHA 20 N GCK 40 S DDC 40 NW CDS 15 NNW BGS 25
SSW P07.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
MOT 20 N JMS 30 N RWF 35 NE OTG 25 SW OTG 30 SW YKN 30 NE ANW 30 WSW
PHP 55 WSW RAP 50 N DGW 35 SSW CPR 40 ENE RKS 50 ENE JAC 30 SE LVM
45 ESE GTF 40 ENE GTF 30 NE CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
EFK 30 W EEN 15 NW ISP 25 S DOV 40 W NHK 15 SW SHD MGW 20 NNE DUJ 35
SE ROC 20 SSE ART 15 W MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 50 WNW BPT
20 SSW LFK 30 S TYR 40 S DAL 10 SE SEP 30 SW BWD 35 WNW JCT 40 ESE
P07 ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 ESE 4CR 30 SSE LVS 25 ESE RTN 25 SW LHX
COS 25 W GJT 20 WNW U28 15 N ELY 10 E RNO 45 SSW SVE 20 SSE MHS 30
SE EUG 30 S AST ...CONT... 40 NE 4OM 25 NE EPH 40 W PUW 25 SE LWS 40
WNW 27U DLN 25 NNW BZN 20 S GTF 45 SSE CTB 55 WNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 25 S TVF
20 SSW BRD MSP 15 S MCW 40 NNE FNB 15 WNW STJ 25 ENE MKC 45 SSE MTO
35 ESE BMG 10 S DAY 35 SSE FDY 50 NNW MFD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NY SWD TO PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE
NRN PLAINS...

...ERN NY SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS AS FAR N AS ERN NY.  IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL HEAT
RAPIDLY AS MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CURRENT OH VLY STORMS
PASSES N OF THE REGION.  AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY MID-DAY
ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE-TROUGH AS LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS.  A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
OH VLY ALONG A WEAK FRONT.  BUT...THE FLOW REGIME IS WEAKER HERE AND
ONLY ISOLD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED.

...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...
PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD MONDAY...MAINTAINING A
HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.  DEFAULT CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER NERN
WY...WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION PREFERRED.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SCNTRL MT/WY MOUNTAINS BY MID-DAY. STORMS ARE APT TO MOVE OFF
THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING ACROSS ERN MT
AND NERN WY.  

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. 
BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MT MAY RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS QUICKLY...MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE EVENING.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A ZONE
WHERE CELLS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE ACROSS SERN WY/NERN WY FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AND A SEVERE MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/MOVE EWD ALONG/N OF AN E-W FRONT FROM PARTS OF ND/SD EWD
TOWARD SWRN/WCNTRL MN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL REMAIN BENEATH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  IN FACT...A
SUBTLE HIGH-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD FROM BAJA AND
MAY AUGMENT LARGE SCALE VENTING BY PEAK HEATING MONDAY OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE.  THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER...SURFACE WILL HEAT CONSIDERABLY AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX TO SWRN KS 21-00Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE AND SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE
TOO FAR FROM THE INITIATING SOURCE DURING THE EVENING AND DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z.

..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.