[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060058
SWODY1
SPC AC 060057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW
GGW 80 NNE BIL 20 WSW SLC 15 WNW ENV 45 NE SUN 25 N 3DU 65 NW FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
JHW 30 NNE HTS 50 ENE LEX 30 NW SDF 20 NW BMG 35 WSW FWA 40 NNW FWA
15 NNW AZO 40 SW MKG 30 SSW MKE 30 NNE LNR 15 SW VOK 65 N EAU 95 NNW
CMX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE
MRF 45 ESE GDP 40 NNW HOB 45 WSW AMA 30 N END 30 SW BVO 20 NW MLC 35
SSW MLC 25 ENE SPS 55 SSW SJT 10 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT LFK 25 NNE
TYR 20 SE FTW 55 NW AUS 55 WSW COT ...CONT... 65 S MRF 10 E GDP 50 N
ROW 25 NNE DHT 30 SW ICT 30 SE SZL 30 WSW STL 15 NNW MTO 35 N DNV 25
SW CGX 20 SE DBQ 25 S RST 35 WNW MSP 25 NE HIB 20 NNE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW 45 S GDV 55
ESE REJ 30 SSW PHP 15 SE CDR 20 ESE CYS 55 ENE CAG 30 NNE U28 MLF 45
S U31 NFL 75 WNW WMC 70 ESE 4LW BNO 50 SSE RDM 30 NNW LMT 15 NNW
4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE JAX 55 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PBG 20 SSW AOO
30 SSW BLF 35 WNW SOP 20 SE ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
CNTRL/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...

...CNTRL/UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE HAVE CONGEALED INTO A SQUALL LINE.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM
EXHIBITS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPES. 
GIVEN THAT THE WIND PROFILE IS LARGELY WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
THE COLUMN AND THE WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...LEADING EDGE OF THE
TSTMS COULD BOW AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OH AND ERN LOWER MI.  MEANWHILE...TRACK
OF A RESIDUAL MCV APPEARS TO BE TRAVELING THROUGH CNTRL LOWER MI. 
AMBIENT VORTICITY PRESENT IN A LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN LOWER
MI COULD CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF TORNADOGENESIS WITH THESE CELLS THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z.

UPSTREAM...VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH PARENT UPPER CYCLONE WAS
SHIFTING ENEWD FROM ERN WI TOWARD UPPER AND NWRN LOWER MI. 
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEDGE OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUGGESTS STORMS
COULD MAINTAIN IDENTITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  VARIOUS BOUNDARY/LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTIONS WITHIN A VORTICITY RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY LEAD TO
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

...SRN PLAINS...
TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO THRIVE IN SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...NAMELY SWRN OK...TX S PLAINS AND SWRN TX HIGHER TERRAIN. 
FLOW REGIME IS FAVORABLE FOR QUASI-STATIONARY SUPERCELL STORMS WITH
SPLIT POTENTIAL.  SO FAR...THE STORM OVER SWRN OK HAS REMAINED
DISCRETE WITH NO COMPETITION FROM NEARBY STORMS.  THE STORMS ACROSS
THE TX S PLAINS HAVE BECOME RATHER RANDOM WITH MANY
INTERACTIONS/ANVIL SEEDING CONTRIBUTING TO WIDE DISTRIBUTION OF
SEVERE THREATS.  MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL. 
BUT...GIVEN A STRONG DEVIANT RIGHT MOTION...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

PRIND THAT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE/LLJ
INTENSIFIES...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO SMALL MCS/S AND LINGER ACROSS
PARTS OF W TX INTO SWRN OK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HAIL AND
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/HEAT BURSTS.

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...1000-1500 MLCAPE
AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN.  A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD
OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  THESE CELLS MAY
LAST INTO LATE EVENING...BUT APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DIURNAL AND
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...AS
PAC NW UPPER LOW SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD...SPEED MAXIMA WILL EJECT NEWD
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS OF TSTMS
ROTATING NEWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN/NRN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE
NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE
LOW...BACKING LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR LOOPY LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING
WINDS.


...LOWER MS VLY...
REMNANT MCV/LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SABINE/LOWER MS VLYS THIS EVENING.  TSTMS SEEMED TO
PREFER THE INSTABILITY ALONG THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS FEATURE DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH ATTENDANT MICROBURST/HAIL THREATS.  SCENARIO SEEMS
CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS TO RETRACT BACK TOWARD THE NUCLEUS OF THE
IMPULSE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

..RACY.. 06/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.