[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051204
SWODY1
SPC AC 051203

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
TOL MIE LAF 40 WSW MKG OSH 30 ESE RHI 35 NW IMT 15 NE MQT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
HVR 30 SSE 3HT 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CLE ZZV LOZ 40 S BNA MEM DUA SPS 55 SSW CDS 40 ENE PVW 45 WNW CSM
BVO JLN 25 NW ALN RFD MSP 60 SW DLH 30 E DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 30 SW INK
60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 45 S P28 30 ESE EMP 25 WNW OJC FNB 30
WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT
...CONT... 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW LFT 35
WNW POE 20 WSW LFK 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HVR 50 SE LWT
30 NW RKS 45 NNE PUC 75 ENE TPH 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 80 NE SVE 60
NE 4LW 55 WSW S80 40 WSW S06 75 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA
20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF  EASTERN
WI...MUCH OF UPPER AND LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...AND NORTHWEST OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHWEST TX ACROSS THE
MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MT AND ID...

...ERN WI/ERN UPPER AND LOWER MI/NRN IND/NRN OH...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SD/NEB.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TODAY.  PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON TO STRETCH FROM LOW NEAR DLH...SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WI
INTO EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE TODAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
J/KG FROM UPPER MI ACROSS EASTERN WI AND LOWER MI.  PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WI OR LAKE MI...SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER/LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND/OH. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES /DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY
VALUES OVER 200 M2/S2/ OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND THE
EASTERN UP...PRIMARILY WITH STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF FRONT. 
ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE QUICKLY INTO A SQUALL
LINE POSING A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN MN/WRN WI/WRN UPPER MI...
MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THIS
REGION.  PRESENCE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.  LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF LOW MAY ALSO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. 
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL OH/IND INTO PARTS OF KY/TN.  THIS
AREA WILL BECOME MODERATELY/VERY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. 
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH
THE PRESENCE OF ONLY A WEAK CAP...WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

...OK/AR/TX...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK AND
NORTH TX...IN LOCALIZED WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL OK/AR. SUFFICIENT HEATING AND A WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY BY MID
AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL BE
RATHER WEAK.  HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS.

...ID/MT...
POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ARCING FROM NORTHERN
CA INTO EASTERN ORE.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT
PARTS OF ID/MT BY AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF ID AND WESTERN MT.  STRONG WINDS FIELDS ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMIC FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

..HART/BANACOS.. 06/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.