[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051624
SWODY1
SPC AC 051622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
TOL 20 E IND 20 SSW LAF 30 S MKE 15 NNE VOK 35 NW AUW 45 ESE IWD 25
NW MQT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
HVR 30 SSE 3HT 25 E MLD 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CLE ZZV 35 NNW JKL 40 S BNA MEM 30 SSW DUA 35 N ABI 50 N BGS 15 WSW
PVW 35 NW LTS BVO JLN 40 NW ALN 35 W DBQ MSP 60 SW DLH 30 E DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS
...CONT... 30 SW BPT 55 NW BPT 35 ENE CLL 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE
LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW INK 60 NNW HOB 15 N CVS 35 WNW AMA 45
S P28 30 ESE EMP 15 SSE OJC 10 SE STJ 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW
MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35 ESE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HVR 50 SE LWT
30 NW RKS 45 NNE PUC 25 NNW MLF 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 75 WNW WMC 55
S BNO 55 WSW S80 35 N PUW 45 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW
SEA 20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF WI...MUCH OF
MI...NORTHERN IND AND NORTHWEST OH......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM  WESTERN/NORTHWEST TX
ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF MT AND ID.....

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE COLD UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PAC NW THE TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A SHARP S/WV TROUGH/VORT MAX ON
NEB/IA BORDER MOVES NEWD ACROSS WI BY THIS EVENING WHICH COUPLED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX PROVIDES FAVORABLE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD THRU
WRN IA THEN SWWD PLAINS TO SRN TX PANHANDLE.  SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
LS BY THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AND
MID MS VALLEY.

IN THE PAC NW A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY VICINITY WRN ID BORDER
WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS WRN MT SWD INTO NRN NV THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT WRN MT WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
UPPER SYSTEM TO THE W.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF THIS
AREA...HOWEVER NEARLY FULL HEATING ALONG WITH MIXING FROM THE
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER MS VALLEY SYSTEM EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS FROM WI/IL EWD. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES
WILL RANGE UPWARDS FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG WI AREA TO NEAR 3000 J/KG
OVER LOWER OH VALLEY TO LWR MI WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE.

AS SURFACE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND CAP WEAKENS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH FROM ERN IA NWD TO WRN LS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT
COUPLED WITH SOME BACKING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE DEEPENING SUPPORT AN INCREASING
SUPERCELL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEGINNING ACROSS WI AND THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF MI BY EVENING.  IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS A FEW
TORNADOS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE MORE LINEAR LINE OF SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE COMMON BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO BOWS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS
DRIVEN BY INCREASING WINDS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS WI INTO MI.

ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A
VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON.  WITH LACK
OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STORM INITIATION...MODE
WILL AT FIRST BE CELLULAR/MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO SHORT
LINES/BOWS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM NRN IND INTO LWR MI
WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.

...MID MS VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE
FRONTAL ZONE AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXISTS.  STRONG HEATING AND
AVAILABILITY OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING.  MLCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARDS FROM 3000
J/KG MID MS VALLEY TO POSSIBLY NEAR 4000 J/KG WRN/NWRN TX.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY OLD
BOUNDARIES/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH RATHER WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHILE SUPER CELLS
WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...THEY SHOULD BE
RATHER DISORGANIZED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  STORMS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
WILL BE AVAILABLE.

SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AREA WILL SUPPORT STORMS
EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
WIND DAMAGE.

...MT/ID...
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AIR MASS LOWER
LEVELS IN WARM SECTOR IS SHORT ON MOISTURE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY
MID AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INVERTED VEE TYPE SOUNDINGS.  HIGHER THREAT
OF HAIL AND POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS WRN MT AS SHEAR INCREASES AND A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY.

..HALES/GUYER.. 06/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.