[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050554
SWODY1
SPC AC 050553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
TOL 35 ENE FWA 20 SE SBN 40 WSW MKG 15 NNW MSN 25 NNW VOK 25 WNW RHI
25 NNW MQT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CLE CMH 10 NW LEX 15 S CKV 10 NW MEM 40 SE PRX 25 E SEP 25 ENE SJT
25 W MAF 45 WNW PVW 15 SSW AMA 45 WNW CSM 20 SSW END 35 SSW SZL 35 W
UIN 20 ENE CID 25 S MSP 65 ENE STC 30 E DLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
HVR 30 SSE 3HT 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW P07 35 NW INK
50 SSW CVS 35 NNE CVS 25 W AMA 50 SW GAG 40 WNW END 30 ESE EMP 25
WNW OJC FNB 30 WSW OLU 45 NE BUB 20 WNW MHE 40 NNE ABR 25 S TVF 35
ESE RRT ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 15 NE BOS ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW
LFT 35 WNW POE 20 WSW LFK 20 NW CLL 10 NE SAT 60 SSE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 50 N BIL
25 NNW LND 45 NNE PUC 75 ENE TPH 45 NNW TPH 15 NNE NFL 80 NE SVE 60
NE 4LW 55 WSW S80 40 WSW S06 75 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE UIL 25 NNW SEA
20 S SEA 35 NNE PDX 55 ESE OTH CEC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...SWWD
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION/VORT MAX OVER NERN NEB...LIFTING ENEWD TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION.  LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL SURGE
EWD...ARCING FROM NRN MN...INTO ERN IA EARLY...BEFORE SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS WI.

EARLY MORNING MCS WILL PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL INTO LOWER
MI WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING UNTIL
AROUND 18Z WHEN COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AID DESTABILIZATION.  DESPITE STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER
FLOW...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS WI.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION...AND WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS
AND SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S...FAST MOVING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE.  TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERS AS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE...BOW LIKE
STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AHEAD
OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE.

FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING PORTIONS OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BRUSH CNTRL
IL/IND REGION FORCING SW-NE ORIENTED DEEP LAYER CONFLUENCE ZONE INTO
THESE STATES.  IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED
ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO EXTREME WRN KY BY MID
AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A BIT WEAKER FARTHER
SOUTH...REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THIS REGION SHOULD HAVE LESS CONTAMINATION
FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND THUS DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY SHOULD
EASILY RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S/SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. 
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES FARTHER NORTH WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.


...SRN PLAINS...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN
OK/NWRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
BACK AND IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY AT PEAK HEATING.  THIS RESPONSE IS
LIKELY DUE TO WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN
NV...MOVING ESEWD INTO NRN AZ AT 05Z.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD APPROACH
THE SRN PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHERE EXTREME
INSTABILITY...SBCAPE VALUES AOA 4000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SLOW-MOVING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AFTER 21Z.  STRONG SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS NWRN TX WILL ALLOW PARCELS
TO EASILY REACH THEIR LFC WITH ANY EXCUSE FOR CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH TSTM CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE AND DRIFT SEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION.


...NRN ROCKIES...

QUITE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. LATER TODAY...EXTENDING ACROSS WRN MT INTO ID
BY MID AFTERNOON.  FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG EWD-SURGING COLD FRONT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS ZONE WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST-MOVING ROBUST TSTMS. 
DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR/FORCING SHOULD PROVE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.