[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 042004
SWODY1
SPC AC 042003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30
SSE SUX 30 NNW DSM 40 NE P35 25 NNE SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP
BIE.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
MSP 40 NE RST 45 W LNR 10 S MLI COU UMN 10 S MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25
WSW OTG 15 SSE MSP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
P07 65 NW ABI 20 NNW LTS 25 SW P28 50 NE LAA 50 SW IML 55 SW MHN ANW
55 WSW AXN 20 N BRD 15 WSW DLH 25 NNW RHI 40 NE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX
ACT 50 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM CBM HOP SDF
IND 25 S DNV MTO 60 NW CGI HOT TYR AUS 65 W COT ...CONT... 85 SSE
MRF 20 ESE BGS 15 E CDS 45 W CSM 25 SSE LBL 20 SE EHA 60 NNW LVS FMN
40 W PGA CDC SLC PIH BTM 55 NNE FCA ...CONT... 15 WNW CLE 40 ENE EKN
50 SW RIC 35 WNW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OLF 40 N MLS
10 E SHR 40 WSW GCC 35 S GCC 30 SSE 81V 30 ENE REJ 20 NNW DIK 25 S
ISN 25 ESE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PWM 15 S CON
25 S EEN 15 S PSF 20 WSW ALB 45 NE UCA 35 E MSS.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS AND NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS NEWD INTO IA
AND SERN/MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TH SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED IN WRN NEB
AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN FAR NERN NEB BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER
AND SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
LOCATED AT MID AFTERNOON IN SERN SD...SWRN NEB AND NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER NEAR LBL.

...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO...
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND WILL
OVERSPREAD SERN NEB AND SWRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP LAPSES RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
18Z SOUNDINGS AT TOP AND OMA INDICATED A WEAK CAP REMAINS ...JET MAX
MOVING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF NEB TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPWARD MOTION TO LIFT CAPPING INVERSION. 
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND MOST LIKELY STORM INITIATION IS ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT AT MID AFTERNOON EXTENDED NEAR A LWD-SLN-HUT 
LINE. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...WRN/SRN IA AND WRN/NRN MO THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS/REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 391. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT ALL
LEVELS PLUS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS.  ALSO...20 KT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM...THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND A DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STRONG
LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

...OK/TX...
AT 19Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED WEST OF LBL WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN OK TO EAST OF A CDS-FST LINE IN WRN TX.
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE OKC 18Z SOUNDING...EXPECT DRYLINE
ONLY TO MIX EWD TO NEAR A P28-50W OKC-ABI LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 4000-5000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NWD...INTENSE HEATING NEAR
THE DRYLINE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO INITIATE.
ALSO...RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
FOR STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...AS
LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN TX/OK OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG
THE OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL BE
PRESENT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH
NERN IL AND ERN WI. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEWD
INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MN AND WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING NWD INTO MN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IS  LIMITING
INSTABILITY...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOP OVER NEB/IA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD OVERNIGHT AS AN
MCS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AT THAT TIME.

...CENTRAL AND WRN NEB/EASTERN SD...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NEB AND
WILL SPREAD ENEWD ALONG TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH INTO NERN NEB AND SERN
SD TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN ACROSS  KS AND
SERN NEB...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IN NEB/ REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH 390.

..IMY.. 06/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.