[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041552
SWODY1
SPC AC 041551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30
SSE SUX 30 NNW DSM 40 NE P35 25 NNE SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP
BIE.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
MSP 40 NE RST 45 W LNR 10 S MLI COU UMN 10 S MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25
WSW OTG 15 SSE MSP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
P07 65 NW ABI 25 NNW LTS P28 RSL MCK LBF ANW 35 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40
E DLH 40 NE RHI 35 ENE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX TPL 50 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT
35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT
35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 75
SSW P07 10 WNW BGS 15 E CDS 45 W CSM 25 SSE LBL 20 SE EHA 25 NE DHT
35 WSW DHT 35 NW TCC 20 NE SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG
50 ENE SUN 45 W BTM 30 NW CTB ...CONT... 25 ESE OLF 40 N MLS 10 E
SHR 40 WSW GCC 35 S GCC 30 SSE 81V 30 ENE REJ 20 NNW DIK 25 S ISN 25
ESE OLF ...CONT... 55 NNE CLE 20 WNW MGW 40 E EKN 15 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV
15 W MSS.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA...EASTERN KS...AND WESTERN
MO...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN OK NORTHWARD INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MN/WI...

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...


...SYNOPSIS...

SCENARIO OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH
MOVES INTO PLAINS TODAY.  TWO IMPORTANT S/WV TROUGHS WILL PLAY A
ROLE... WITH EJECTING IMPULSE MOVING NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONGER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE SURFACE FEATURES THIS MORNING HAVE
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS...BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT A LOW MOVING NWD THRU
SRN MN AND ANOTHER LOW KS/OK BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.


...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OK/TX AND WESTERN AR...WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING MOVING
NEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY  TIED TO S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO
UPPER MS VALLEY.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL HELP TRANSPORT MARITIME AIR MASS NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH
HIGH THETA-E AIR EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NEB AND IA BY MID
AFTERNOON.  VERY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THIS REGION AFTER MORNING CLOUDS ERODE...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE/. 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TEMPORARILY
PROVIDING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.

AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS.  EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA.  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT
ALL LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH EXTREME
INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN  IA AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN MO DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50
KNOTS...AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  COMBINATION OF VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR PARAMETERS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
EXTREME INSTABILITY INDICATE THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES THIS
EVENING.

...OK/TX...
SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO
CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FULL SUNSHINE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY  UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES
PUSHING 4000 J/KG.  PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO
APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE STRONG
WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT.  THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADO AT LEAST AS FAR S AS N CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING GIVEN
THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...PROXIMITY TO MID AND UPPER JET AND
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AS LEAD S/WV TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING
AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SWLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES. WITH S/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO E OF MN SURFACE LOW
ONLY QUESTION AS TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
THIN DURING AFTERNOON ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SURFACE LOW EWD INTO WI.  A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
CONSIDERED EXTENDING MDT RISK INTO WI...HOWEVER TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO DO SO ATTM.

...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD/MN...
WITH APPROACH OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS S/WV ALONG WITH BACKED LOW
LEVEL WINDS PROGD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. 
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. 
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF MN THIS EVENING.


...A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY..

..HALES/GUYER.. 06/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.