[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041109
SWODY1
SPC AC 041108

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 30
SSE SUX 25 S FOD P35 20 WNW SZL 60 SSE OJC CNU 40 SW EMP BIE.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MKT 25
WSW RST ALO IRK 25 W COU UMN MKO ADM FSI SLN OFK 25 WSW OTG MKT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
P07 45 N SJT LTS P28 RSL MCK LBF ANW 35 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40 E DLH 40
NE RHI 35 ENE GRB CGX DEC HRO PRX TPL 50 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 20 SSW CDS
15 SW GAG 30 SSW DDC 35 SW GCK 40 NNW EHA 35 NE CAO 35 WSW DHT 45 NW
TCC 20 NE SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG 50 ENE SUN 45 W
BTM 30 NW CTB ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 15 W MLS 10 E SHR 45 SE WRL 45 N
RWL 25 ESE FCL 20 WSW AKO 40 SE SNY 15 NNW MHN 15 NE MBG 60 NE MOT
...CONT... 35 ENE CLE 25 SW PKB 20 ESE PSK 25 E DAN 20 ENE ECG
...CONT... 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT 35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20
SSE SAT 30 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV
15 W MSS.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA...EASTERN KS...AND WESTERN
MO...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN OK NORTHWARD INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO MN/WI...

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  TWO WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE ROTATING THROUGH THIS REGION.  THE FIRST TROUGH IS NOW OVER
NORTHWEST MO AND WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY.  THE
SECOND TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE THIS EVENING.

...ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS/MO...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OK/TX AND WESTERN AR...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF KS/MO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT
STEADILY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS
REGION.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MARITIME AIR MASS NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH HIGH
THETA-E AIR EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NEB AND IA BY MID
AFTERNOON.  VERY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THIS REGION AFTER MORNING CLOUDS ERODE...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE/. 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.

AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS.  EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA.  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AT
ALL LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH EXTREME
INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IA AND
WESTERN MO DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS...AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY
VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK
AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  COMBINATION
OF VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND EXTREME INSTABILITY INDICATE THE THREAT OF
STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING.

...OK/TX...
SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO
CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FULL SUNSHINE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
AND EAST OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000
J/KG.  PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH
WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN KS NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK...WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG OK PORTION OF DRYLINE...WHERE STRONG WIND
FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT.  STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.

...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD/MN...
MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN NEB THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS PROGD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF MN THIS EVENING.

..HART/BANACOS.. 06/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.