[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040603
SWODY1
SPC AC 040601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
MKT 30 S RST 25 SSE ALO 40 SSE OTM 25 W COU 25 SSW UMN 25 ESE MKO
OKC 25 SW END 20 WNW SLN 25 SSE YKN 25 N OTG 25 ESE MKT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
P07 45 N SJT 50 SSE CDS 35 SE GAG 40 SE DDC 10 SSW EAR 50 SSW MHE 25
WNW ATY 40 SSE FAR 50 N BRD 40 E DLH 40 NE RHI 35 ENE GRB 20 SSE CGX
15 NE DEC 60 NW CGI 45 WNW HOT 45 WNW AUS 50 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 15 W MLS
10 E SHR 45 SE WRL 45 N RWL 25 ESE FCL 20 WSW AKO 40 SE SNY 15 NNW
MHN 30 ENE MBG 70 NW DVL ...CONT... 25 SE P07 20 SSW CDS 15 SW GAG
30 SSW DDC 35 SW GCK 40 NNW EHA 35 NE CAO 35 WSW DHT 45 NW TCC 20 NE
SAF 35 SSW FMN 35 S U17 35 N BCE 15 S DPG 50 ENE SUN 45 W BTM 30 NW
CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CLE 25 SW PKB
20 ESE PSK 25 E DAN 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35 SW BHB 20 SSE BTV 15 W
MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 N LFT
35 WSW MLU 20 ENE SHV 35 SSW GGG 20 SSE SAT 30 NW LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/IA...SWD INTO OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ARE
FROM SWRN TX INTO MN/WI...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD.  EARLY MORNING
WV/RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING TWO MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS KS TOWARD IA...AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
EARLY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.  THE SECONDARY
UPSTREAM FEATURE IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN DUE TO TIMING OF UPPER
SPEED MAX EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HIGH LEVEL SPEED
MAX...ROUGHLY 70KT...LOCATED OVER SRN NV...IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NRN
AZ.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS  SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH INTO NWRN OK/CNTRL KS BY 05/00Z. DESPITE WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS FORECAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SHARPENING DRY LINE/FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE NOTED FROM SFC LOW OVER ERN NEB...SWWD INTO NWRN OK. 
THIS SHOULD FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR POTENTIAL EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST THINKING IS ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY OVER ERN KS/WRN MO WILL LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
REORIENT ITSELF ACROSS SRN MN/WI BY LATE AFTERNOON.  RECOVERY WILL
BE SLOW ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY AS MCS DEBRIS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT
HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION.  OF MORE INTEREST IS THE MARITIME
AIRMASS THAT HAS BEGUN TO SURGE NWD ACROSS TX INTO SRN OK.  AT 05Z
THIS MORNING...SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F HAD RETURNED TO THIS
REGION...AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW
THIS AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS/MO INTO POSSIBLY EXTREME SERN
NEB/SWRN IA BEFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS.  MODELS ARE
INSISTENT THAT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST
OF THE WARM SECTOR ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE FROM SERN NEB...SWWD
INTO SWRN TX.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 90S
ACROSS WRN OK...SWWD...WITH AN AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO NERN KS.  SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY RANGE FROM 3000-4000
J/KG ALONG THIS ZONE BY 21Z.  THIS SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY PEAK HEATING AS PARCELS EASILY
REACH THEIR LFC WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY.

STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND TIMING OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT
FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS A BROAD ZONE LATITUDINALLY FROM
EAST OF THE SFC LOW...SWD INTO WCNTRL TX.  ASIDE FROM HIGHER BASED
STRUCTURES ACROSS SWRN TX...MOIST-SHEARED PROFILES FROM OK NWD
SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.  IN
ADDITION...EXPERIMENTAL TECHNIQUES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
OCCUR WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE
INTO A LOOPY SQUALL LINE FROM WRN IA ACROSS MO INTO NERN OK BY 06Z. 
SRN EXTENT OF MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION
OF THE SRN PLAINS WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
IMPINGE ON SWD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY OVER OK. 
OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE EWD-PROGRESSING MCS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING
INTO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FARTHER EAST.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.