[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040058
SWODY1
SPC AC 040056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
AKO 50 WSW GLD 40 NNW GCK CNK 30 NE MKC 20 ESE SZL SGF 40 SSW JLN
GAG 20 SSE CAO 15 ESE RTN 35 SSW PUB 20 ESE FCL 15 NNW AKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM
25 W ATL 40 SE CSV 25 SSE LEX 50 E LUK 45 ESE PKB 25 ENE SSU 30 ESE
LYH 20 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE INL 20 ENE DLH
30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO DYR 35 E MLU 40 WSW POE 55 S CLL 20
ENE HDO 40 SSE JCT 20 NW BWD 10 NNE CDS 30 NW AMA 25 ESE ABQ 25 N
SOW 10 NE FLG 40 ENE GCN 30 NNE CNY 40 NNW CAG 20 ESE DGW 65 SSE 81V
35 ESE 81V 35 WNW REJ 35 N 4BQ 65 N SHR 40 E COD 45 SE IDA 40 NNW
TWF 50 NNW BOI 30 NNE EPH 45 NNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

SRN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS OK INTO
SCNTRL KS...EXTENDING FROM A VORT CENTER NEAR ICT...SEWD TO NEAR
TXK.  STRONGEST CONVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
SERN KS.  00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF AND OUN SEEM TO BE MOST
REPRESENTATIVE OF WARM SECTOR WITH A NARROW WEDGE OF REASONABLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS NOSING INTO SERN KS...ROUGHLY 7
C/KM.  ALTHOUGH ABSOLUTE VALUES OF INSTABILITY ARE NOT THAT
SIGNIFICANT...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ROTATION...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO BY LATE EVENING.  LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES MAY BE OBSERVED WITH STRONGER STORMS.

UPSTREAM...AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS JUST EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS FROM ADAMS COUNTY CO...SWD TO OTERO COUNTY CO.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AS FAVORABLE SELY INFLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
00Z SOUNDING FROM DDC SUGGESTS MINIMAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS
SWRN KS DOWNSTREAM...BUT STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS WRN OK INTO SCNTRL
KS LATER TONIGHT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN MAINTAINING EWD
PROPAGATION/NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK LATER
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL TX...

CENTRAL TX CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING AS
INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS AN AGITATED
CU FIELD OVER THE ESCARPMENT...EXTENDING INTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE
DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT.  IN ALL LIKLIHOOD FORCING APPEARS
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 06/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.