[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 032015
SWODY1
SPC AC 032014

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50
NNE JCT 25 N BWD 65 SW SPS 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 30 ENE CAO 30 NW TAD
20 W COS 25 NW DEN 20 NNE FCL 55 NNE BUB 65 E ANW 25 N 9V9 50 WNW
ABR 30 SSE BIS 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 60 W RRT 35 NE FAR 20 NNE BKX 35
NNW IRK JEF 40 E HRO 20 E SHV 40 WSW POE 25 S BPT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30
WSW ORL DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 55 ENE DLH
30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE
IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL
...CONT... 20 SE P07 45 W SJT 25 NW BGS 50 WSW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE
SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25
NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EPM 20 SW BGR
25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR
10 SW DGW 25 WSW CDR 15 SW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
FL...

...OK AND TX THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...

LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS SLOWING THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
OVER CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NERN TX. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO SOME RECOVERY...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM PARTS OF NRN TX THROUGH OK THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD THROUGH OK AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. A
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING
ACROSS WRN OK...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY EWD THROUGH OK AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN TX AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO SELY IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING VORT MAX...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES AND MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...DEGREE OF TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH A
CONTINUE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.


...CO AND KS...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CO SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. E OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW EXIST. HOWEVER...MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AND WIDESPREAD CIRRUS ARE
LIMITING INSTABILITY TO AOB 1000 J/KG. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD
EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD INTO WRN KS OR SWRN
NEB TONIGHT.


...FL...


ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AND S FL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...ND...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH ERN
ND ALONG AND E OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..DIAL.. 06/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.