[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031650
SWODY1
SPC AC 031649

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35
SW BWD 40 SSW SPS 45 SSE LBB 40 W EHA PUB 20 SE DEN 20 E FCL 35 E
CYS 55 NNE BUB 10 S BIS 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 70 N GFK 50 WNW AXN 15
NE BKX 30 NNW IRK JEF 40 E HRO 20 E SHV 50 ESE LFK 30 NE GLS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
FMY 20 NW AGR 15 NW DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 55 ENE DLH
30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE
IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL
...CONT... 25 SW P07 45 SSE MAF 45 N MAF 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE
SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25
NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20 SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EPM 20 SW BGR
25 SE MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR
10 SW DGW 25 WSW CDR 15 SW PHP 55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SRN...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NEWD OUT SERN NM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SITUATED
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ND SWD INTO KS AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES
TROUGH...BUT SURFACE PATTERN WAS GENERALLY CHAOTIC AS A RESULT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

...TX/OK...
BAND OF STORMS FROM NWRN TX SWD INTO CENTRAL TX WERE MOVING EWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF NM TROUGH. AIR MASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED AT MID
MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK AND CENTRAL
TX THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX AS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING AND HEATING AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS.  ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY
INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT DEEP
LATER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS SRN TX IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS MAIN
FORCING WILL LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE LESS
VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN CAP. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER TO WLY AND BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SO IF SURFACE BASED STORMS DO DEVELOP...VERY
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION HAVE SO FAR LIMITED
HEATING...THOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS 
COLDER AIR ALOFT SPREAD IN...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED NORTH OF LBB AND IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO EJECT EWD INTO
WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THESE STORMS EVOLVE ...SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND A 45 KT WLY LEVEL MID WIND
MAX WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

...ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...
NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DEEP EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW STRONGER HEATING
SOME UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...FORCING AHEAD OF UTAH TROUGH
AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW TORNADOES.

...NEB/IA/SD/ND...
CLOUDS HAVE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
POCKETS OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...FL...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
SRN FL PENINSULA. THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THIS CONVECTION IS
UNSTABLE AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

...NRN FL PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SC...
AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY...BUT WIDESPREAD AND EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..IMY/GUYER.. 06/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.