[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031232
SWODY1
SPC AC 031231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
P07 50 SSE LBB 25 SSW AMA 20 SSE CAO PUB 35 NW COS DEN 35 SSE AKO 25
WSW MCK 30 NE ANW 40 WSW ABR 55 NNE ATY RWF 30 ENE FOD 20 NNW IRK 40
WSW JEF 40 ESE SGF 30 N HOT 15 N TXK TYR 25 SSE AUS 60 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAR 35 N BGR 25 SE
MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW CDR 20 SSW PHP
55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 40 WSW CPR 20 ENE RWL 45
SSW DGW 40 WSW CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 55 ENE DLH
30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE
IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 35 W INK
35 NW HOB 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 E FLG 50 NE IGM 40 ESE
SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20
SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE 7R4 45 SW POE
50 S LFK 60 NNE VCT 25 NNE NIR 10 E MFE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/TX.  ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR MORE
FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES...IT APPEARS THAT PARTS OF THIS
REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

...TX/OK TODAY...
BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST TX INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS
EASTWARD.  CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL STILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000
J/KG.  THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTH TX AND MUCH OF OK.  STORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...AND WESTERN AR BY EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.  IF POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING CAN
DEVELOP...TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED.

...TX PNHDL/WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION APPEAR LIKELY TO LIMIT
SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING OVER WESTERN OK TODAY.  HOWEVER...SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE
DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THE CONDITION OF THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS SUSPECT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
AFFECT OF MORNING CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000
J/KG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. IF THESE CONDITIONS
CAN DEVELOP...AREA WILL BE PRIMED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.  POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD EXIST WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN OK DURING THE EVENING.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THIS AREA AS EVOLUTION OF MORNING
CONVECTION BECOMES APPARENT.

...ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...
NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO TODAY.  THIS WILL TRANSPORT RICH
MOISTURE WESTWARD IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.  ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION BY MID AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE DEN AREA.  STORMS
SHOULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE
EVENING.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDING IN CENTRAL CO APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...NEB/IA/SD/MN...
OVERNIGHT MCS REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST KS AND WESTERN IA.
 A LARGE AREA OF RAIN-COOLED AND STABLE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS
IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB.  THIS AREA SHOULD DESTABILIZE
BY AFTERNOON DUE TO POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WARM ADVECTION ATOP
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...FL...
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA TODAY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THIS REGION TODAY...IN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM OVER CUBA.  RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
WET MICROBURSTS OR A FEW TORNADOES.  WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE AT 1630Z IF
TRENDS SUGGEST GREATER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR.

..HART/JEWELL.. 06/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.