[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030557
SWODY1
SPC AC 030556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
P07 50 SSE LBB 25 ESE AMA 20 ESE DHT 30 NNW RTN 30 SW COS 30 WSW LIC
50 W GLD 10 WSW MCK 20 SE BUB 25 N OFK 40 E SUX 35 NNW DSM 20 NNW
IRK 40 WSW JEF 40 ESE SGF 30 N HOT 15 N TXK TYR 25 SSE AUS 60 SSE
DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAR 35 N BGR 25 SE
MWN 30 ESE SLK 20 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW CDR 20 SSW PHP
55 WSW MBG 40 W Y22 20 SE 4BQ 40 NNE CPR 40 WSW CPR 20 ENE RWL 45
SSW DGW 40 WSW CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 55 ENE DLH
30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO 30 SSE PAH 30 WSW BNA 40 SW SDF 30 SE
IND 15 SSE FWA 15 ENE FDY 20 WNW CAK 15 NNW MGW 10 ENE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE 7R4 45 SW POE
50 S LFK PSX 10 S NIR 30 W MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 35 W INK
35 NW HOB 40 SW CVS 45 NNW 4CR 45 NE SOW 15 SW INW 25 SSE GCN 40 ESE
SGU 60 W 4HV 40 SE SLC 30 SSE MLD 25 NNW TWF 35 ESE BKE 15 NW LWS 20
SSW GEG 25 NNE EAT 55 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM SERN
NEB/SWRN IA TO SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT TO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WILL ALLOW HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30 M TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY 04/00Z.  MORE SPECIFICALLY THERE ARE TWO
SEPARATE FEATURES OF CONCERN THAT SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE PERIOD...1) EJECTING NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 2)
CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.

SRN MOST SHORTWAVE IS WELL DEFINED EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR ELP...SWD INTO CNTRL MEXICO.  THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS TX/OK EARLY WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.  GFS IS QUICKER
MOVING THIS FEATURE EAST OF I-35...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
REGARDLESS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SURGED WEST OF MAF.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z. 
IT APPEARS MULTIPLE CLUSTERS...OR PERHAPS AN ELONGATED MCS WILL BE
OBSERVED FROM NEAR CDS TO JCT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...PROPAGATING ENEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/NRN TX INTO
SRN OK BY MID DAY.  ALTHOUGH OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATED STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING DURING THE DAY.  EVEN
SO...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  STORM
MODE/EVOLUTION WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POTENTIAL
TORNADIC ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...STRONG HEATING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NWRN TX.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK FOR REDEVELOPMENT BENEATH MODERATE
MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW.  IF SO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELLS.

FARTHER NW INTO SERN CO...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE ELY
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CO.  IT
APPEARS 50S DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY PEAK
HEATING.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 21-00Z NORTH OF
WEAK SFC LOW.  STRONG VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL LEND TO
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO SWRN KS.  MODELS INSIST
LLJ WILL INCREASE AND FOCUS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL
KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST THINKING IS HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS SFC FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE EAST ACROSS KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.