[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020052
SWODY1
SPC AC 020050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N
GFK 35 SSE GFK 20 NW ATY 55 SSW MHE LBF 30 SW IML 15 WSW AKO 35 W
SNY 25 N AIA 25 E RAP 40 S REJ 35 NW REJ 45 SE GDV 55 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 40 NNW CLL 40 E
DAL 20 E PRX 35 NE TXK 45 N MLU 25 SW JAN 45 E LUL 20 S SEM 30 SSW
ANB 25 E RMG 30 NE SPA 30 N FAY 40 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W INL 25 NNW BRD
25 SW RWF 20 ENE OLU 35 N RSL 10 WSW GCK 45 S LHX 30 S U17 25 N SGU
50 NNW P38 35 WSW ELY 60 NNW ELY 20 NNE ENV 40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70
NW OWY 50 SE BNO 35 WNW BNO 65 ENE RDM 50 WNW PDT 30 ENE EPH 30 N
63S ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 20 NNE LEB 25 SW EEN 10 E POU 30 E AVP 20
NE IPT BFD 30 NW JHW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AXIS IS
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  EARLY EVENING SATELLITE
IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORT THIS WITH A SLOWLY EXPANDING CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MT/NERN WY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT
NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS...SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE BY ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS ND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH MORE DISCRETE STRUCTURES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...A PLUME OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN MOIST SWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES MAY BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL
COOLING INTENSIFIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS NERN CO/NEB
PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE INABILITY TO TAP LOWER TERRAIN
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHIELD BENEATH
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE HAS GRADUALLY EXPANDED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR SO.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS
CONVECTION SPREADS ENEWD.

...SERN U.S...

EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMPLEX ELONGATING ZONE OF HIGH
LEVEL VORTICITY FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...NNEWD INTO NRN GA. 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
SLOWLY DIMINISHED...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY HOLDING ALONG E-W
BOUNDARY WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER FROM AL/GA BORDER
INTO SRN SC.  THIS MAY TEND TO KEEP ACTIVITY FOCUSED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGER EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/ERN TN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
DECREASING INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE
THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OR PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 06/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.