[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 012003
SWODY1
SPC AC 012002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N
GFK 35 SSE GFK 20 NW ATY 55 SSW MHE 35 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML 30 WNW SNY
55 N CYS 15 SSE WRL 30 ENE COD 25 ESE BIL 15 SSW MLS 10 ENE GDV 20 W
ISN 60 NNW ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 35
NNW TLH 25 NNE ABY 30 ENE MCN 10 WSW AGS 45 SSE CAE 40 SSW CRE
...CONT... 20 ESE JAX 30 NE GNV 15 WSW GNV 35 SSE CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 20 N DLH 35
ESE MSP 25 SE RST 25 ESE OTM 30 NW ALN 35 W EVV 25 SE OWB 50 S BNA
20 WSW CHA 10 S GSP 25 E CLT 15 NW GSB 25 NE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 E ALM 55
NNE 4CR 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 35 SSE GUC 45 NNE 4BL 30 NE BCE 50 SSW
P38 65 NE TPH 35 NE U31 20 NNE ENV 40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70 NW OWY 50
SE BNO 25 NNW BNO 35 E RDM 25 SW RDM 55 SSE EUG 25 NNW OTH
...CONT... 30 NW CAR 40 E BML 20 SSE EEN 30 N BDR 20 NE TTN 35 N BWI
20 E LBE 10 NW FKL 55 N ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S GA...SRN SC AND NRN
FL...

...NRN PLAINS...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM S CNTRL MT SEWD THROUGH THE BIG HORNS OF WY THEN FARTHER SE
THROUGH SERN WY. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...POCKETS
OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG EXPECTED. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS THE UPSTREAM SPEED MAX
APPROACHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY
OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SUPPORTED BY
INCREASING ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE INTENSIFYING LOW
LEVEL JET. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO
LINES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND APPEAR LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.


...SRN GA...NRN FL AND SRN SC...

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT FROM SRN GA INTO SRN SC WHERE PARTIAL SURFACE HEATING
HAS RESULTED IN SOME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED TO AOB 800 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
MAY BE AS STORMS MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY
FROM S CNTRL GA EWD INTO SRN SC WHERE THE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
IS ENHANCED. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING.


...SWRN TX...

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER SWRN TX WHERE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST. SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERING TO NWLY WITH HEIGHT IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EWD. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP.

..DIAL.. 06/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.