[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020607
SWODY1
SPC AC 020605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE
LAA LIC 40 WSW SNY 45 N IML 35 WNW BBW 30 SE BUB 35 SSE HSI 30 NW
HUT 40 E DDC 35 SW GCK 45 NE LAA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40
E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40
NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 10 NW 9V9 45 SW
ABR 45 NNW MBG 40 NW BIS 50 N MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
MLB 20 S FMY ...CONT... 20 SSW CEW 30 N DHN 20 NW LGC 15 NNE ATL 15
WNW AGS CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE 81V 40 W GCC
45 SW BPI 15 N EVW 40 NNE VEL 25 NNW LAR 25 WSW CDR 25 SW PHP 30 WNW
PHP 40 N RAP 15 ENE 81V ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 50 WSW RHI 40 SSW LSE
30 S ALO 10 ENE SZL 30 ESE SGF 20 N HOT 15 N ELD 20 SW GLH 35 S JBR
20 WNW MDH 30 SSE HUF 50 W LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG
...CONT... HUL 25 SE RUT 45 SE UCA 35 WNW SYR ...CONT... 25 NNE GLS
45 ESE CLL 35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 65 SW GDP 30 S ROW 40 SSW
CVS 50 E TCC 20 W DHT 30 SE TAD 20 WNW RTN 15 ENE SAF 60 S GNT 55 SE
SOW 30 S SOW INW 45 NNE INW 50 WSW FMN 15 WNW FMN 30 N DRO 40 S MTJ
30 WNW U17 25 SSE P38 30 ESE U31 25 E U31 70 SW BOI 35 ESE BKE 55
SSE S80 25 ESE DLN 10 SSW LVM 40 WNW 3HT 50 WSW GTF 40 E GEG 50 SE
4OM 45 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN CO INTO SRN NEB AND
WRN/NRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO SWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN U.S....

...PLAINS...

LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD.  RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL SFC FRONT WILL ELONGATE IN A N-S FASHION ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS...SWWD INTO NERN CO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG HEATING
SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOTABLE INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED OVER NWRN TX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER
60S AS FAR AS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS AIRMASS TO RETURN ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN CO BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70
IN ECNTRL CO.  STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE INTO NERN CO WHERE DEEP ELY COMPONENT SHOULD EASILY
ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL
FLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION STRONGLY SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BY 21Z BEFORE
SPREADING EWD TOWARD SWRN NEB/WRN KS.  IF DEW POINTS CAN HOLD NEAR
60 INTO THIS REGION AN AXIS OF SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG SHOULD
EXTEND INTO NWRN KS BY 00Z AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. 
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY IN HIGHER MOISTURE ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SFC LOW.  IN ADDITION...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  WITH TIME...AN ELONGATED COMPLEX MCS
SHOULD EVOLVE BEFORE SPREADING INTO SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRY LINE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NWRN
TX INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.  VEERING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND
SUFFICIENTLY COOL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 90S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. 
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER 60S...VERY UNSTABLE PROFILES WILL DEVELOP WHERE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS.  EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL
IS EXPECTED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.  INCREASING LLJ WILL ALLOW DISCRETE
STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS WRN OK BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENS
LATE IN THE EVENING.

WELL AFTER 06Z...STRONG SRN STEAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS
SRN NM/FAR WEST TX.  INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SYSTEM TO INCREASE SPEED AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO WEST TX FOR LATE NIGHT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  FORCED LINE OF TSTMS COULD EASILY DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

...SERN U.S...

00Z GFS SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GA INTO NRN FL
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. 
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAD SPREAD
INLAND TO NEAR THE WEDGE FRONT OVER NRN GA/SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  EPISODIC
CONVECTIVE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
PERIOD...PEAKING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST VEERED FLOW BUT SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR/MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
MULTICELL OR PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES WITH LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS AS LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP FOR HAIL PRODUCTION.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.