[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011605
SWODY1
SPC AC 011604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW
GFK 50 WSW FAR HON 55 E ANW 15 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML SNY 55 N CYS GCC
25 S GDV 60 NNW ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
JAX 20 S MGR 30 WSW ABY 15 ENE LGC 45 SSW AHN 30 ENE AGS 35 NE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CAR 25 E MWN 20
SSE EEN 10 N BDR 20 S TTN 35 WNW ILG 15 NE AOO 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI
...CONT... 45 W MRF 45 E ALM 55 NNE 4CR 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 35 SSE
GUC 45 NNE 4BL 30 NE BCE 50 SSW P38 65 NE TPH 35 NE U31 20 NNE ENV
40 S BYI 15 WNW TWF 70 NW OWY 50 SE BNO 25 NNW BNO 35 E RDM 25 SW
RDM 55 SSE EUG 25 NNW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 20 N DLH 35
ESE MSP 25 SE RST 25 ESE OTM 30 NW ALN 35 W EVV 25 SE OWB 50 S BNA
20 WSW CHA 10 S GSP 25 E CLT 15 NW GSB 25 NE HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE STREAM OF S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NWRN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS UPPER LOW NWRN ND THIS AM MOVES N AND
WEAKENS WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES EWD QUICKLY ACROSS WY/MT. 
OVER SERN U.S. THE TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
MOVE ONLY LITTLE TODAY AS LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WRN AL
POSSIBLY DRIFTS A LITTLE WWD INTO MS.

AT THE SURFACE A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WRN WY THIS AM
WILL ENTER NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS INTO SRN CANADA BY END
OF FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE SERN STATES...A WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS EWD FROM WEAK LOW
WCENTRAL AL. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL GA AND
SRN SC TODAY. A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS SPREADING ACROSS SRN GA
INTO SRN SC AS WARM FRONT MOVES N.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK SCENARIO STILL VALID AS STRONG 100-120KT UPPER 
LEVEL JET WILL DRIVE ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE EXCELLENT
SUPPORT FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NERN WY.  LOW LEVEL JET OVER HIGH
PLAINS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW WILL PICK UP TO 40-50 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET PROVIDE
VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATICS/SHEAR FOR SUPPORT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS.  THE LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
SUPPORT MLCAPES UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
VICINITY WRN DAKOTAS/WY/MT BORDERS AND THEN SPREAD RATHER RAPIDLY NE
AND E THIS EVENING.  SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE LIKELY AS WELL...SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG KINEMATICS.

...GA/SRN SC...
REF MCD #1107

VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN GA INTO SC
AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...VEERING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS VICINITY WARM
FRONT AND 20-25 KT OF SFC-1 KM SHEAR...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FURTHER S THRU FL
PENINSULA...OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY STABILIZED  AIR MASS
...BUT WITH 20-30 KT OF SHEAR AND A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SELY WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY AND 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...SWRN TX...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS WEAKENED THIS AREA...THERE REMAINS A 
NWLY FLOW PATTERN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH 30KT
OF NWLY 500 MB FLOW AND 10-15 KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER SELY FLOW...SHEAR
ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAINTAIN A THREAT OF
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.