[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011242
SWODY1
SPC AC 011241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW
GFK 50 WSW FAR HON 55 E ANW 15 NNE LBF 40 NNW IML SNY 55 N CYS GCC
25 S GDV 60 NNW ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
DRT 20 N COT 40 ESE COT 20 SSE CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI
ABY 40 E TOI 10 NNE AUO 35 N MCN AGS 15 ESE CHS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
FMY 10 NNW MLB ...CONT... 20 S PBI 60 WSW MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW P07 15 NE GDP
LVS 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 45 WSW PUB 20 ESE MTJ 25 WNW 4HV 35 NE P38
65 E TPH 35 N U31 30 WNW EKO 55 NNW ENV 65 SSE TWF 20 SW BYI 30 WSW
TWF 40 NW OWY 20 SE BNO 30 SE RDM 25 N RDM 20 SSE EAT 35 NE 4OM
...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 50 SW IWD 15 SE LSE MLI 45 NW DNV 20 NNW MIE
40 NNW DAY 30 W CMH 50 SSW CMH 35 ESE LUK 45 NE SDF 35 W SDF 25 ENE
CKV 40 S BNA 45 W CHA 20 NNE AND 35 WNW SOP 25 ESE RWI 25 WSW HSE
...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 ENE LEB 25 NE BAF 10 N BDR 20 S TTN 35 WNW
ILG 15 NE AOO 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN FAR SRN TX THIS MORNING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA MAINLY THIS MORNING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL GA AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...

...SNYOPSIS...
UPPER LOW IN NWRN ND WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN CANADA TODAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH ID...SHIFTS ENEWD
INTO WRN ND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SLOWLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY.

...NRN PLAINS...
DESPITE A WEAK RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A
70 KT JET MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ID UPPER LOW...WILL SPREAD NEWD
FROM WY INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIS SOUNDING WAS ONLY WEAKLY
CAPPED THIS MORNING AND THE LIFT SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TO SPREAD IN FROM SERN MT/ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON STEEP LAPSE
RATES...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES
RESULTING IN AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG
FORCING AND AMOUNT OF LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES AND THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER.

...FAR SRN TX...
OVERNIGHT MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR SRN TX SHOULD MOVE SWD
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING. A STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY TO INHIBIT
MORE STORMS FROM DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY.

...CENTRAL GA AREA...
AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD...WARM FRONT NEAR THE AL/GA/FL BORDER IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO GA/SC
DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE E-W
WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT THE INSTABILITY...IF STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
A BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
PENINSULA. MID 70S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SELY WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...SERN NM/WRN TX...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PUSHED WWD INTO
THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED AND THE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

..IMY/JEWELL.. 06/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.