[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010559
SWODY1
SPC AC 010557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
CRP 30 ENE COT 25 N HDO 55 ENE JCT 45 WNW TPL 20 SE ACT 55 E CLL 30
ENE GLS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
PBI 25 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 W CTY 10 E JAX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
RRT 25 ENE FAR 10 SSW ATY 65 W YKN 25 N LBF 40 NNW IML 20 WSW SNY 50
W BFF 55 NNE DGW 30 ESE 4BQ 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW P07 15 NE GDP
LVS 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 45 WSW PUB 20 ESE MTJ 25 WNW 4HV 35 NE P38
65 E TPH 35 N U31 30 WNW EKO 55 NNW ENV 60 S BYI 20 SW BYI 30 WSW
TWF 60 NW OWY 20 SE BNO 30 SE RDM 25 N RDM 20 SSE EAT 35 NE 4OM
...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 60 SW IWD 25 W VOK 20 E RFD 15 SSW BEH 20 SE
TOL 20 SW MFD 35 WNW UNI 55 WNW HTS 30 N LEX 15 SSW SDF 45 SW OWB 35
NNE DYR 25 SSE MKL 30 NNW MSL 40 W CHA 25 NE SPA 30 S DAN 35 NE RWI
20 ESE ECG ...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 ENE LEB 25 NE BAF 10 N BDR 20 S
TTN 30 WNW ILG 25 N HGR 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL...

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN ND WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN
CANADA TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LOW SLIDES EWD INTO MT. AT THE SFC...A
FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LIKELY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO
55 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION.

...TX COASTAL PLAINS...
AN MCS CURRENTLY IN CNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD REACHING THE
TX COASTAL PLAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE LINE BEFORE THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE IN
THE MORNING. BEHIND THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F SHOULD
ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE AND TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 21Z SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.

...FL...
A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SERN US AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
FL BY 21Z SHOW SBCAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERTICAL
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR
SUPERCELLS...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING
WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 06/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.