[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010056
SWODY1
SPC AC 010054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
SJT BGS 45 SSW LBB 30 W LBB 15 W PVW 10 ENE PVW 35 SSE CDS 60 SW SPS
50 NE ABI 30 NNW BWD 40 W BWD 20 N SJT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
CTY 25 W GNV 30 WSW DAB MLB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
JCT 60 WSW JCT 50 ENE ROW 35 WSW CVS 35 NW CVS 30 ESE TCC 40 NW CDS
15 SSE FSI 25 SSE ADM 30 NE DAL 45 E ACT 35 NE AUS 35 N SAT 40 S
JCT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS
25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW
IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 40 NE MKL 40 ESE BNA 15 ENE AVL 30 NE FAY
20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP 30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30
SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV
40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S
RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ACY 25 ESE HGR
15 S LBE 20 S YNG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 40 N BML 15 SSW MWN 10 SSW CON
20 WSW BOS 10 S EWB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN FL...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS WEST TX WHICH IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER-TROUGH
SLIDES EWD OVERNIGHT...THE MCS WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY
AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY CENTERED NEAR ABILENE...WILL
CONTINUE BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST WELL-DEVELOPED
SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS THE MCS BECOMES MORE LINEAR IN NATURE LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MARGINAL AS THE MCS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED DUE
TO DECREASING INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT.

...NRN FL...
AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST AHEAD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WRN FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN
FL LATE THIS EVENING SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS INLAND. THIS MAY RESULT
ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS FL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS ROTATING CELLS MOVE INLAND. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LARGE HAIL...STEEP LAPSE RATES AT
LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS
THAT MOVE OVER THE PENINSULA.

..BROYLES.. 06/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.