[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311620
SWODY1
SPC AC 311619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
MTC 15 NNW MKG 30 NNW OSH 10 NE AUW 10 S IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E DTW AZO 10 ENE
BRL 10 ENE FLV SLN 20 ESE LAA 30 SSW RTN 45 ESE ABQ 35 SSW 4CR 25 NW
GDP 25 NW FST 55 WSW SJT 20 WSW JCT 40 WNW HDO 45 NW LRD ...CONT...
20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT CLL 40 SSW GGG 25 E MEM 55 E BWG 30 SE LEX HLG
25 SW FKL 25 WSW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL
20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 25 E SLE 10 WNW EPH 80 WNW FCA
...CONT... 50 NNW GGW 30 NE MLS 40 NNE RAP 20 NNE MHN 35 N BUB 40
WNW YKN 45 NE ATY 10 W INL ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO DOMINATING CIRCULATION
MUCH OF CONUS...THE ONLY AREA WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
TODAY IS VICINITY UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THE 30-35 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET HAS TRANSPORTED A VERY MOIST AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS WI INTO NRN
LWR AND UPPER MI.  THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER FROM WEAKENING OVERNIGHT
MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ALLOWING STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH
LITTLE CIN.

THE 25-30KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLULAR
STORM ORGANIZATION. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO LOCAL
CONVERGENCE...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZES AND SUBTLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS.

HAVE TAKEN SEVERE THREAT OUT OF MN AS AIR MASS ABOVE SURFACE
INVERSION HAS DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY AS SHOWN ON INL 12Z SOUNDING AND
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACARS NETWORK.

...SWRN U.S...
WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...LAPSE RATES ARE NOW
GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURST SEVERE WINDS MUCH OF SWRN U.S.
AN EXCEPTION COULD STILL BE VICINITY LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHERE
THERE SHOULD BE FULL HEATING ALONG WITH CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF
MONSOON MOISTURE. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL CONFINE THE FEW
STRONG STORMS TO NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
NEB/SD. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED SEWD INTO SRN NEB/NERN
CO OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO N OF BOUNDARY.  A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO/SERN WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 8-9 C/KM LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.