[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311942
SWODY1
SPC AC 311940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE
OSC 40 SSW HTL 10 WSW GRB 15 WNW AUW 55 W RHI 25 SSW IWD 25 SW CMX
65 NE MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT
CLL 35 SSW GGG DYR 20 SE CMH 25 SSW YNG 20 W FKL 25 W ERI 50 NNE CLE
...CONT... 10 E DTW 10 E AZO 10 E BRL 10 ENE FLV SLN 20 ESE LAA 15
SE TAD 10 ENE SAF 25 ENE ONM 20 SSE ALM 45 SE GDP 20 W FST 40 W SJT
20 WNW JCT 45 WNW HDO 45 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 45 SSE BIH
65 NW BIH 50 N SAC 40 WSW RBL 45 NE ACV 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW RDM 25 N
ALW 15 ESE GEG 80 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 45 S GGW 20 W REJ 30
SSW PHP 10 SW VTN 45 ENE ANW 15 SSW MHE 50 NE ATY 10 W INL
...CONT... 15 W MSS BTV 25 SSW MWN 10 E PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...

...GREAT LAKES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER MN WITH A BAND OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UP
OF MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN
MI INTO NRN WI. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ALONG
THE SOUTH EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS
AREA WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVELS FROM NERN WI TO THE EAST APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

...NORTHEAST...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN NY AND NRN PA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A
POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F.
VAD WIND PROFILERS IN SRN NY SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGESTING JUST ENOUGH SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY NEAR PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DENVER PROFILER SHOWS
ABOUT 10 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE IN
NATURE. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 1000
J/KG...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM
WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40+ F. THIS SUGGESTS HAIL AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW CELLS NEAR
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

...DESERT SOUTHWEST...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN
CA. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F.
THIS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPS IS CREATING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500
TO 2500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 07/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.