[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311244
SWODY1
SPC AC 311242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N
MTC 25 NNW MKG 40 ENE VOK 30 E STC 45 WNW BRD 20 NW BJI 40 W INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL
20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 25 E SLE 10 WNW EPH 80 WNW FCA
...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 30 NNW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 35 S PHP 20 SE 9V9 55
NNE ABR 70 W RRT ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE TOL 20 E SBN
30 NE MLI FLV 25 ESE RSL 55 NNW GCK 40 NE LVS 45 NNW 4CR 40 SSW 4CR
25 NW GDP 25 NW FST 65 WSW SJT 30 NW JCT 30 NNW SAT 30 SE AUS 35 NNE
CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 W ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES...

PRIMARY BAND OF WESTERLIES REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH
LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE UNITED
STATES.  SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON AND
NORTHERN UPPER MI.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...LEAVING VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS PARTS OF MI/WI/MN.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UPPER MI AND EASTERN
WI...SPREADING ACROSS LOWER MI BY EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS REGION SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...A WEAK CAP...AND
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.  STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WESTWARD ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION
AND LIFT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CO AND SOUTHERN WY...SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS.  STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING OVER EASTERN CO AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE WINDS IN MORE INTENSE CELLS. 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE
EVENING...WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD
MAINTAIN THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

...AZ...
MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AZ...WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUPPRESSED SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND 15-25 KT EASTERLY MID LEVEL
WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LESSEN DIURNAL HEATING TODAY.  MORNING
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOIST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS
RATHER LOW TODAY.

..HART/GUYER.. 07/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.