[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310524
SWODY1
SPC AC 310522

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE
OSC 20 SSW MBL 25 W AUW 30 E STC 45 WNW BRD 20 NW BJI 40 W INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL
20 N SCK 55 W RBL 45 WNW MFR 35 ESE SLE 40 E EPH 30 NNW CTB
...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 30 NNW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 35 S PHP 20 NNW 9V9 60
NW ABR 60 N MOT ...CONT... 60 NW CAR 25 E ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TOL 20 E SBN
40 W RFD 25 WNW FLV 25 ESE RSL 55 NNW GCK 40 NE LVS 45 NNW 4CR 40
SSW 4CR 25 NW GDP 30 WSW FST 65 NE P07 50 SW JCT 15 ENE HDO 55 NW
VCT 35 NNE CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 W ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN/WI/MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE WCNTRL U.S. THIS
PERIOD WITH A BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW ARCING ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST U.S...INTO SCNTRL CANADA...AND THEN BACK
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...IS
FCST TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY IN NWLY FLOW WHILE SPREADING FROM MN TO
ERN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION FROM BAJA/MEXICO. THIS PLUME NOW EXTENDS AROUND THE WRN
AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
BASIN...AND ROCKIES. TROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BENEATH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
CONUS.

...UPR MS VLY/NRN GREAT LAKES...
AN MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY FROM NRN MN TO NRN MI. THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE
OF A WEAK LLJ...AND LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING SEWD
WITHIN NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE STRONGEST MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER... PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION TOPPED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALIGNED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION
AND THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN NY...
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SPREAD ESEWD INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FROM THE
SRN TIER/HUDSON VLY AREAS INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING. IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THAN
CURRENTLY FCST...PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO SLGT RISK IN A
LATER OUTLOOK.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 07/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.