[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310056
SWODY1
SPC AC 310055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
ELO 30 SE TVF 45 WSW FAR 10 SE MBG 35 E Y22 45 S P24 45 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE MTC 35 ESE MKE
15 NE CID 30 NE FNB 30 SW GLD 20 NW TAD 40 NNW LVS 40 SE SAF 35 ENE
4CR 50 NNE ROW 40 ESE CVS 60 NE BGS 25 WSW BWD 45 SSW PSX ...CONT...
35 NNW SAN 20 NW NID 55 SSE TVL 45 S RBL 35 NE ACV 35 WNW MFR 15 NNE
RDM 20 NE ALW MSO 25 ESE LVM 25 NNE SHR 35 N GCC 40 W REJ 60 SW DIK
45 NNW DIK 70 NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 15 NW ESF
35 W UOX 25 NNE LOZ 35 WSW EKN 15 ESE AOO 15 WSW CXY 30 WNW DOV 20
WSW ACY 25 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND NWRN
MN...

...NRN PLAINS...
LEE-TROUGH EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS TO AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNED
ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FROM MT/ND TO NRN MN. WNWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 30-40KT EXISTS ATOP THIS BOUNDARY ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE WCNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FASTER FLOW AND WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE
REGION HAS INHIBITED MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF STORMS MANAGING TO INITIATE NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH OVER
SCNTRL ND...AND ACROSS WRN SD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/LOW ACROSS NRN
ND AND INTO NWRN MN THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES
EAST AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AIDS IN FURTHER WEAKENING THE CAP. SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS ND WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER
LARGE SCALE FORCING...TIME OF DAY...AND STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

...UPR MS RIVER VLY TO NRN GREAT LAKES...
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION RESULTS IN
LOWER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS WI AND MI TONIGHT. ONE
SMALL MCS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF DECAYING ACROSS THE U.P. AND NRN LWR
MI THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN LTG ACTIVITY INDICATED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MAGNITUDE OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEAK LLJ DIRECTED
TOWARD THE REGION...SHOULD ACT TO MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR A LATE NIGHT MCS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. IT IS
NOT CLEAR IF AN MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE NRN
PLAINS CONVECTION...OR IF WEAK CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS WI WILL
STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK. EITHER SCENARIO MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE OF
HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...LWR CO RIVER VLY...
MONSOON MOISTURE AND HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING TO NUMEROUS STORMS
WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN CA AND SWRN AZ. HIGHER
TERRAIN PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS NOW
DRIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. PULSE AND MULTICELL
INTERACTIONS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS FROM PHX AREA WWD ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER
VLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 07/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.