[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 302000
SWODY1
SPC AC 301958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
RRT 25 S TVF 35 N ABR 30 S MBG 55 SSE Y22 25 NW Y22 60 NE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
OSH 35 E EAU 45 NNE BRD 50 SW INL 10 ESE INL 70 ESE ELO 45 NNE RHI
40 NNE GRB 10 WNW MTW 10 E OSH 35 W OSH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE OSC 20 NE SBN
25 ENE PIA 50 NE FNB 45 ENE GLD 25 S LHX 50 SSE RTN 15 NW CVS 35 NE
BGS 45 SSE AUS 30 E PSX ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 25 E EDW 60 ESE FAT 45
S RBL 35 NE ACV 45 SE OTH 15 WSW DLS 35 SW S06 45 NNW HLN 85 NNE BIL
45 SSW OLF 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 50 N POE
50 WSW MEM 40 NE LEX 20 SSW IPT 30 SW POU 20 S GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CNTRL MT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SFC TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS WCNTRL ND. EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A VERY UNSTABILE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
CONSIDERING DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
CONVECTION INITIATES...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM
THE RUC SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM ACROSS MOST
OF ND AND ACROSS WRN SD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN
ND INTO NW MN BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING DUE
TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS WRN MN. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT
ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NCNTRL MN AND CNTRL WI.
SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT ARE IN THE 60S F WITH OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT
SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AS STORMS
INITIATE AND DRIFT SEWD ACROSS NE MN AND NRN WI. HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

...SRN ATLANTIC COAST...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS ERN GA...ERN SC AND ERN NC. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH VAD WIND
PROFILERS IN THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOWING WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
SUGGESTS STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
CELLS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.

...DESERT SW...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ.
THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING ABOUT 15 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS
CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS.

..BROYLES.. 07/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.