[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301555
SWODY1
SPC AC 301554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
RRT 30 ENE FAR 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
MQT 40 SSW IMT 60 N EAU 10 SSW DLH 25 ESE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S RAL 40 NNW DAG
40 N SAC 55 SSE EKA 45 SE OTH 15 WSW DLS 35 SW S06 35 NNE 3DU LWT 85
WNW MLS 45 SW OLF 65 NNE OLF ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 20 NE SBN 25 ENE
PIA 50 NE FNB 45 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 50 E LBB 45 NNE
ABI TPL 45 SSW CLL 40 WSW HOU 35 W BPT 25 ENE LCH 20 NW MLU 25 NE
PBF 10 SE MKL 35 WNW CSV 20 ESE LOZ 40 NE 5I3 15 ESE MGW 20 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ND AND NWRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN INTO WRN UPPER MI AND
NRN WI...

...MN ARROWHEAD TO WRN MI AND NRN WI...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA AS 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
FROM ERN NEB TO WRN LS IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD. 
SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM WRN MN SEWD INTO SRN WI WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NEWD TODAY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM COUPLED WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE FRONT AS NOTED ON 12Z INL SOUNDING
CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF
ARROWHEAD.

30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NERN MN INTO WRN UP
OF MICHIGAN AND NRN WI THRU THE DAY AS THE MDT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE LARGE WRN UPPER HI TRAVERSES THIS AREA.

ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN THE
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND GRADUALLY WORK SEWD INTO NERN MN AND WRN LS.
 SHEAR AND MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
 PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS ALTHOUGH SOME WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATER IF STORM
DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THREAT INITIALLY ACROSS NERN MN WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN UP MI AND
NRN WI BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...ND/NWRN MN...
CURRENT STRONG CAP WILL STEADILY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB THRU THE 90S ACROSS ND.  WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AS HIGH
AS 4000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL ND EWD INTO NWRN MN BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.

WEAK S/WV IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SRN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TODAY WHERE SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
FIRST INITIATE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO NRN ND/NWRN MN.  WHILE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THE 30-40KT 500 MB WLY FLOW ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER...COUPLED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS AGAIN WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.  LOCALLY
SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30 F
T/TD SPREADS.

...SWRN U.S...
MONSOON MOISTURE NOW COVERS MUCH OF SWRN U.S. EXTENDING NEWD THRU
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS REMAINS OVER THE
SERN THIRD OF AZ THIS AM WHICH WILL REDUCE HEATING SUFFICIENTLY TO
REDUCE THREAT OF SEVERE IN THAT AREA.  HOWEVER FROM WRN AZ/SERN CA
NWD INTO SRN NV/SWRN UT THE COMBINED HEATING AND NOW MOIST AIR MASS
WILL LEAD TO A MDTLY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHEAR REMAINS
GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS ALL OF THIS AREA WITH STEERING FLOW LESS THAN
10KT.  THUS SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE UNORGANIZED WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROPAGATING INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BOTH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...SERN U.S...
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND.  WITH EXTENSIVE
INLAND CLOUD COVER...THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LANDS WHERE THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH HEATING. 
VERY WEAK SHEAR...THUS PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE DOMINANT MODE.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.