[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301248
SWODY1
SPC AC 301247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
RRT 40 SSW GFK 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
MQT 40 SSW IMT 60 N EAU 10 SSW DLH 40 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 15
E BEH 25 SSE PIA 50 NE FNB 30 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 35
WSW CDS 30 ENE ABI TPL 50 ENE CLL 45 E LFK 20 NW MLU 25 NE PBF 30 SW
MKL 35 WNW CSV 20 ESE LOZ 40 NE 5I3 15 ESE MGW 25 NNW BWI 30 SW ACY
...CONT... 40 S RAL 40 NNW DAG 40 N SAC 60 NNW UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW
35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 15 E GDV 55 N ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI...

...ND/MN...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER MOST OF THE NATION
TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW FIELD.  ONE FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ND/EASTERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON.  STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER ALB/MAN...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO PARTS OF ND BY EARLY EVENING.  SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND
CAPE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGER CELLS.

...MN/WI/MI...
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEB INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI BY
00Z.  ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF
THE JET IS LIKELY TO AID IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN.  THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI DURING THE EVENING.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATE A THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A MORE
ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS
STORMS MOVE INTO LOWER MI.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TODAY FROM AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS.  MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  STORMS MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.  HOWEVER...STRONGER CELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS.

...AZ...
WEAK EASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN AZ TODAY. 
THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EVENING. 
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/BOTHWELL.. 07/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.