[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300550
SWODY1
SPC AC 300549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
RRT 40 SSW GFK 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LGB 45 ESE PRB
40 NE MRY 50 N UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 15 E
GDV 55 N ISN ...CONT... 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 15 E BEH 40 SW RFD 50 NE
FNB 30 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 30 E LBB 30 ENE ABI TPL 50
ENE CLL 45 E LFK 20 ENE MLU 10 N CBM 30 ENE MSL 35 WNW CSV 25 ESE
LOZ 40 ENE 5I3 45 WSW MRB 25 NNW BWI 30 SW ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
U.S....

...NRN U.S...

DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER WITH BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY FORCING FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS ISOLATED-SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
DAY-AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SPREADING INTO ONTARIO. 
UPSTREAM...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN BROAD UPPER RIDGING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN WHERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  A SWD
EXTENSION OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ND BY
EARLY EVENING WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. 
LARGE HAIL OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS IF CONVECTION DOES EVOLVE.

FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS NEAR 31/00Z...BRIEFLY
APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL. 
OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...SERN U.S...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SERN U.S. AGAIN TODAY.  LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND EARLY
STORM INITIATION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...SWRN U.S...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MEXICO INTO SRN
AZ SATURDAY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENTS SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER
CORES. GRADUAL MOISTENING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL RAISE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS BY
EVENING.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 07/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.