[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291942
SWODY1
SPC AC 291941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 40 SW RFD 35 NE
UIN 40 N COU 35 N SZL 35 S BIE 35 ENE MCK 35 NE LIC 40 SSW PUB 15 SW
SAF 35 ENE ONM 35 WNW ROW 40 S LBB 10 N SEP 40 W LFK 15 NNE POE 20
NE HEZ 30 WNW MSL 25 WSW LOZ 10 W HGR 20 ENE NEL ...CONT... 15 ENE
PBG 25 SSW ROC 35 E TOL 35 W TOL 30 SSW AZO 15 SW GRR 45 WNW MBS 50
E OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 20 NE LAX
40 WSW FAT 45 E UKI 35 E ACV 25 SW MFR 75 NNE MFR 40 S PDT 55 S S06
35 NNW HVR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ATLANTIC COAST...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. THE CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND WEAK
FORCING DUE TO AN ERN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE FORMING
NEAR AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM CNTRL
GA TO ERN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
F. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 20 KT SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL. MOIST PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ANY SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF SFC
HEATING.

...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN SD AROUND THE NERN END OF
A SWRN US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ONGOING IN ERN NEB. AS THE
ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORMS
MAY INITIATE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 20
TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A FEW CELLS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SFC-BASED STORMS DEVELOP BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL.

FARTHER WEST IN THE BLACK HILLS...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR THIS EVENING. THE CELLS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE DUE TO THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE HAIL THREAT BRIEF
AND MARGINAL.

...SW DESERTS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
WHICH IS TRANSPORTING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE SW DESERTS.
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED STORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA...AZ AND
NV. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRIFT NWD INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VAD WIND PROFILES
ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 07/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.