[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291626
SWODY1
SPC AC 291624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 15 NW PIA 25 NW
COU FLV 25 N CNK 45 SW EAR 40 ENE AKO 25 ENE COS 40 SSW PUB 30 NNW
LVS 10 NE ABQ 40 SW 4CR 35 ENE ROW 25 ENE PVW 10 ESE SEP 55 SW LFK
POE 25 N HEZ 40 SE MKL 60 SW LEX 30 NNE PKB 30 ENE DUJ 25 WNW BDR 25
SW HYA ...CONT... 15 ENE PBG 25 SSW ROC 40 E TOL 25 N FWA 10 SSW GRR
30 ENE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 W PMD 25 WNW
BFL 20 NE FAT 25 S TVL 15 WSW SVE 35 N RBL 40 E EKA 20 E CEC 50 NW
4LW 55 SE DLS 15 NE S80 30 NW HVR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS WITH A MDT W/WNWLY FLOW
ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY.  MONSOON
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING EWD FROM SRN ID INTO WY/SERN MT 
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BY MID
AFTERNOON FROM WRN ND SEWD TO E OF BLACK HILLS. TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED SHEAR COUPLED WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE THE BETTER SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THIS AREA WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
CAPPED TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SERN MT/NERN WY IN THE MONSOON PLUME.  LIMITED CAPE AND HIGH BASES
SUGGEST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVES ACROSS SURFACE TROUGH INTO A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THUS A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SD AND
POSSIBLY NE.  HAVE DROPPED SLGT RISK FROM EARLIER FORECAST AS IT
APPEARS SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE E OF BLACK HILLS WHICH
RAISES UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MANY AND WHEN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP GIVEN THE APPARENT CAP.

...SWRN U.S...
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE UNDERWAY IMPERIAL VALLEY AND
SWRN/SCENTRAL AZ.  THE PREVAILING SELY STEERING FLOW S OF 4-CORNERS
HIGH WILL FAVOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PROPAGATING WWD
INTO LOWER DESERT VALLEY.  WITH MLCAPE CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000
J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW..A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS...WITH
ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...SERN STATES...
A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED AIR MASS REMAINS TO THE S
OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WRN CAROLINAS TO NRN GA...WITH 
STRONG MORNING HEATING FROM SERN NC TO SERN GA.  WITH SOUNDINGS IN
AREA INDICATING ONLY WEAK CAP AND POTENTIALLY MLCAPES TO ABOVE 3000
J/G THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON FIRST VICINITY SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM COAST AS WELL AS NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE SOLID CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS.

..HALES/SCHNEIDER.. 07/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.