[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290551
SWODY1
SPC AC 290549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MQT 25 NNW DBQ
50 SSW IRK 25 E TOP 40 WNW CNK 45 SW EAR 35 SSE SNY 20 ESE DEN 40
SSW PUB 30 SW RTN 10 NE ABQ 30 SE ONM 45 W ROW 25 NNW HOB 45 NE BGS
35 ENE ACT 20 WNW POE 20 ENE HEZ 40 SE MKL 60 SW LEX 25 ENE PKB 30 N
CXY 25 WNW BDR 15 E BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 W PMD 30 ENE
BFL 40 E FAT 40 ESE TVL 15 WSW SVE 35 N RBL 40 WSW MHS 25 E CEC 50
SE OTH 70 N BNO 45 SE GTF 65 NNW GGW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S...

DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
IN...WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FRIDAY.  WITHIN THIS PLUME...OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
RESULTANT MLCAPE VALUES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG IF
CLOUDINESS INDEED HOLDS AS EXPECTED.  IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITHIN OTHERWISE MARGINAL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  LATEST THINKING IS ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AS CONSIDERABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERTURNING AND MEAGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

...BLACK HILLS REGION...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES INTO SERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN FAVORS A MIGRATION OF WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED DISTURBANCES
 FROM THE GREAT BASIN/INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IT APPEARS ONE OF THESE
FEATURES WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM NV INTO WY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  WITH
ELY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN SD INTO THE BLACK HILLS
REGION...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED
STRONG HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR 30/00Z TIME FRAME. 
OTHERWISE ANY WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM QUICKLY INTO THE MO
VALLEY REGION WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 07/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.