[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290053
SWODY1
SPC AC 290052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
GSB 25 W SOP 25 SW HKY 40 WNW HKY 50 E TRI 25 SW ROA 55 SSW RIC 25 E
GSB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 20 WSW BIL
45 NE MLD 25 NW DPG 20 N MLF 25 W PGA INW 20 NNE SAD 60 E DUG
...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 N BFL 40 SW TVL 25 NNW SVE 60 WSW BNO 25 ENE
LWS 50 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW P07 65 SSE MAF
25 E SJT 25 W CLL 40 W POE 45 NNE HEZ 45 NE CSV 35 NW EKN 15 WSW MRB
25 SE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE EAR 30 ENE SNY
30 SSE 81V 50 E MLS 45 NW DIK 40 W ABR 15 W FSD 20 ENE LNK 15 SSE
EAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OSC 30 NNE MKG
45 S LSE 25 E MKT 20 ENE MSP 40 ESE RHI 10 W ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...CAROLINAS...

00Z SOUNDING FROM GSO APPEARS PARTLY CONTAMINATED BY DEEP
CONVECTION...YET THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STILL EXHIBIT A FAIRLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000
J/KG WHERE AIRMASS HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PROPAGATING NWD ACROSS NC...APPARENTLY AIDED BY MARINE SURGE
FROM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NNEWD
TOWARD THE VA BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
EXPECTED.  UNTIL THEN...MORE ROBUST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING REDUCES
OVERALL THREAT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS
PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLACK
HILLS REGION...SEWD INTO CNTRL NEB.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALLOWED SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC
ALONG BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AS LLJ INCREASES.  ALTHOUGH ISOLATED-SCT
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WEAK
INSTABILITY DOES NOT FAVOR MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OR
PERHAPS GUSTY DOWNBURSTS.

..DARROW.. 07/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.