[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281947
SWODY1
SPC AC 281945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
CHS 10 SSW AGS 15 N AHN 25 E TYS 35 SE 5I3 20 ESE SSU 40 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL
15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W
4HV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 25 N BFL 40
SW TVL 25 NNW SVE 60 WSW BNO 55 ESE EPH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 75 NE
MOT 20 NNW JMS 60 S FAR 30 E AXN 35 S DLH 65 NE CMX ...CONT... 15
NNE MBS 35 NNW CGX 20 ESE OTM 35 SE HSI 15 NNW HLC 15 W CAO 30 WSW
4CR 20 SSE ALM 20 SW MAF 40 ENE SJT 35 W ACT 40 SE HOT 45 ENE BWG
PKB 35 E AOO 15 SSW JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN VA...FAR
ERN TN...NC AND SC...

...EAST COAST/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/FL...
AN UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...ASCENT IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WV EXTENDING SSWWD TO
AL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN ERN SC...ERN
GA AND FL. A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST CONSIDERING
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 20 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN AREAS WITH
LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE
TO THE MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN
ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
A MESOLOW AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NRN
WI EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN MN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT TAKING THE STORMS ESEWD INTO CNTRL WI...SERN
MN AND NE IA BY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION SUGGESTING THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM SE MT
EXTENDING ESEWD INTO CNTRL SD. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN SD SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION DUE
TO THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. STILL...SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT CONSIDERING
LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. THE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

..BROYLES.. 07/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.