[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281634
SWODY1
SPC AC 281633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
SAV 40 ESE MCN 20 NNE ATL 50 S TYS 40 E TRI 15 SW DAN 30 NNW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL
15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W
4HV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MBS 35 NNW CGX
15 E OTM 15 N FNB 30 ESE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 20 SSE ALM 20 SW
MAF 40 ENE SJT 35 W ACT 40 SE HOT 55 E BWG AOO 20 SW JFK ...CONT...
75 NE MOT 20 NNE JMS 65 N ATY 15 S AXN 45 ENE CMX ...CONT... 20 E
CZZ 30 SSE BFL 45 E FAT 35 WSW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 W BNO 45 ESE EPH 60
ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS....

...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT HAS DRIFTED SWD INTO SRN NC AND THE PIEDMONT OF
SC...AND THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS W ACROSS N GA/AL.  THE AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE NEAR AND S OF THE
FRONT...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG BASED ON
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK S OF THE
FRONT...AND VERY MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS IN THE ELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY.  STILL...THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL.

...HIGH PLAINS...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN EXTENDS WWD ACROSS SD...AND THEN
NWWD INTO SE MT AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS ERN MT WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY...AND
LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/WAA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INVOF WRN SD BY EARLY
TONIGHT.  ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY FORM LATE TODAY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...OR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE W IN NE WY/SRN MT...AND THIS
CONVECTION COULD PERSIST AS A SMALL MCS TONIGHT ACROSS WRN SD/NEB. 
DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW
MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.  

...FL THIS AFTERNOON...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY INLAND OVER
THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK ELY FLOW REGIME WHICH
WILL ALLOW INITIAL DEVELOPING STORMS TO STAY ALONG THE E COAST SEA
BREEZE.  THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOCAL STORM INTERACTIONS MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. 

...MN/WI...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NW WI. 
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AUGMENTED BY
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.