[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281237
SWODY1
SPC AC 281235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 40
ESE AHN 20 NNE ATL 25 ENE CHA 20 NNW TRI 25 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 4HV 30 NNE 4BL
15 NW GUC 15 WSW LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 50 SSE SLC 35 W
4HV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 SSE BFL
55 SSW BIH 25 WNW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 W BNO 45 ESE EPH 60 ENE 63S
...CONT... 70 NW DVL 20 NNE JMS 45 SSW FAR 35 NNW AXN 50 SE ELO
...CONT... 55 NNE MTC 30 NE IRK 25 SE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 25 S
ALM 15 WSW MAF 20 SW FTW 25 SW LIT 60 ENE BWG AOO 20 SW JFK
...CONT... 60 S CRP 55 WNW MFE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...

...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT...
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SWWD INTO WRN
SC/NRN GA THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING VIS IMAGERY INDICATES AREA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY CLOUD FREE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING.  THIS WILL ALLOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S.  AS FRONT SHIFTS SWD
BEFORE STALLING...CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF MODERATE WLY
FLOW AND LEAVE MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
 STORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE FRONT AND INVOF SEA BREEZES BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUGGEST PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...
WITH MOST LIKELY SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN GA ENEWD
INTO ERN NC.

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY SSEWD ACROSS MN AND NRN WI TODAY
AHEAD OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SEWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THOUGH NAM BE OVER FORECASTING AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /I.E. NAM FORECASTS
MID 60F SFC DEW POINTS/...COMBINATION OF ADVECTION...DOWNWARD MIXING
AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD INCREASE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. GIVEN 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
NEAR SEVERE HAIL/WIND...DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...INTO THE
EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEDGE OF 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN SELY FLOW INTO
WRN NEB/SWRN SD AS SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT A
RELATIVELY DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TODAY...WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+ KT OF SFC-6 KM
SHEAR. THUS...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT OR OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERSIST AS THEY MOVE SSEWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THEY
COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR.  CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS LOW ATTM WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CAPPING...AND WILL THUS OPT TO LEAVE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FOR NOW. LATER TONIGHT...MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED STORMS ALONG NOSE OF 40+ KT SLY LLJ WHICH
WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 07/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.