[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280540
SWODY1
SPC AC 280539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 35
ENE CAE 30 WNW AND 30 ESE TYS 40 SW BLF 25 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BCE 25 ESE 4BL
20 SSE ASE LAR 15 W CPR 25 WNW LND 40 SSW BPI 35 SSW SLC 45 NE BCE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 20 NNE JMS
65 S FAR 20 WSW BRD 55 ESE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MTC 30 NE IRK
25 SE MCK 15 W CAO 30 WSW 4CR 25 S ALM 15 WSW MAF 30 WNW ACT 40 N
ELD 60 ENE BWG 25 N MGW 30 SE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 SSE BFL
55 SSW BIH 25 WNW TVL 45 SSW 4LW 10 E BNO 45 ESE EPH 30 NNE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

TRAILING PORTIONS OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THURSDAY.  DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM...LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG SWD-SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE CAROLINAS SUGGEST
MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
WHERE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS EXPECTED.  IT APPEARS SUB
CLOUD RH VALUES WILL LOWER ENOUGH TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL
WITH STRONGER STORMS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ DEVELOPS FROM NWRN KS INTO
WRN SD.  AS SFC PRESSURES BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS...WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL DROP SWD INTO NRN NEB BEFORE STALLING AND RETURNING NWD LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  STRONG HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...ALONG WITH MORE
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.  VEERING PROFILES
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL SUPPORT WEAK ROTATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.  ISOLATED HAIL OR STRONG WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY BUT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 07/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.