[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271945
SWODY1
SPC AC 271944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
WAL 15 SSW RIC 35 E LYH 50 SW AVL 25 NNW RMG 15 WSW HSV 15 NE MSL 35
NE CSV 35 SSW EKN 20 NW MRB 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 20 S LRD
...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT BIH 40 S U31 70
ESE U31 P38 SGU 35 S BCE 30 SSE BCE 30 NNW U17 20 S VEL 40 NNW LAR
35 SE DGW CDR 45 ESE CDR 20 WSW MHN 20 S IML LAA LVS ABQ TCS ALM ELP
MRF BWD PRX PGO DYR UNI DUJ UCA MPV 20 SSE CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ANJ CWA ATY
MBG 40 SSW REJ 4BQ SHR 40 NNE BIL GGW 55 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG
20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF NEW ENGLAND...THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND THE TN
VALLEY....

...TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO ATLANTIC STATES...
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX.  FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
HAS AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF BROKEN NARROW LINE OF STORMS ALONG COLD
FRONT...FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE SLOW SOUTHWARD ADVANCE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT.

STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...EXTENDING JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... 
IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST.
BUT...MEAN FLOW REGIME /ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 KT/ WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS FROM
THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THOUGH FLOW REGIME IS WEAKER WEST OF THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE COLD
POOLS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A BIT MORE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO
SOLIDIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS...OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F...AND
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
MID-LEVEL COOLING ABOVE PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL OVERSPREADING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
STRONGEST CELLS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR
BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS... BEFORE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

...WESTERN STATES...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AIDED BY WEAK IMPULSE
MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER INTO THE OREGON COAST. 
HIGH IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  AS
THIS OCCURS...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST
APPEARS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO...WHERE MID-LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WHICH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 07/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.